AC Oulu
vs
KuPS
Garuda Lions Prediction: KuPS
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — KuPS is the favourite, not a value bet.
AC Oulu vs KuPS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AC Oulu vs KuPS
| Probability | AC Oulu | Draw | KuPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.3% | 28.3% | 28.5% |
| Market | 25.2% | 27.8% | 47.0% |
| Final | 29.7% | 27.9% | 42.4% |
| Edge | +4.5% | +0.1% | -4.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.3% per unit staked (our 42.4% × 1.95 − 1).
AC Oulu vs KuPS match preview
AC Oulu faces KuPS in an intriguing Veikkausliiga clash. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with AC Oulu at 30% to win, a draw at 28%, and KuPS leading at 42%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with a 7% probability. Both teams show potential for scoring, with an expected goals tally of 1.48 for AC Oulu and 1.16 for KuPS.
In terms of recent form, AC Oulu has recorded two wins followed by three mixed results, while KuPS has struggled with only one win in their last six matches. The head-to-head record indicates a close rivalry, with AC Oulu securing 5 wins to KuPS's 4 in the last 10 encounters. The confidence grade for this match stands at C, indicating a level of uncertainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AC Oulu and KuPS expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
AC Oulu and KuPS attack and defence ratings
AC Oulu
KuPS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
AC Oulu vs KuPS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KuPS | 42.4% | 2.36 | -4.6% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Oulu | 29.7% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| KuPS | 42.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% |
| No | 45.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | KuPS win | 12.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 71.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
AC Oulu vs KuPS stats
AC Oulu and KuPS recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AC Oulu and KuPS season so far
AC Oulu record
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KuPS record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
AC Oulu vs KuPS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | KuPS | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-02 | AC Oulu | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-22 | KuPS | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-28 | AC Oulu | KuPS | League Cup | 5-0 |
| 2025-12-05 | KuPS | AC Oulu | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2025-07-04 | AC Oulu | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | KuPS | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-25 | KuPS | AC Oulu | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | KuPS | AC Oulu | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-28 | AC Oulu | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AC Oulu vs KuPS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.2%, draw 27.8%, away 47.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.64 | 3.30 | 1.95 |