AC Oulu
vs
VPS
Garuda Lions Prediction: AC Oulu
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.73.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
AC Oulu vs VPS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AC Oulu vs VPS
| Probability | AC Oulu | Draw | VPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.2% | 26.6% | 15.3% |
| Market | 39.1% | 28.5% | 32.4% |
| Final | 43.9% | 28.0% | 28.1% |
| Edge | +4.8% | -0.5% | -4.3% |
Why AC Oulu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices AC Oulu below our published probability: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.0% per unit staked (our 43.9% × 2.46 − 1).
AC Oulu vs VPS match preview
AC Oulu faces VPS in a Veikkausliiga matchup with a kickoff scheduled for October 28, 2026. According to our model, AC Oulu has a 50% probability of winning, while VPS has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of AC Oulu, with an expected goals tally of 1.35 for Oulu and 0.76 for VPS.
Recent form indicates that AC Oulu has struggled, with a record of one win in their last six matches. VPS has shown some inconsistency as well, winning two of their last six games. In their last ten head-to-head encounters, both teams have won four matches each, with two draws. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 36%, and both teams to score is at 41%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AC Oulu and VPS expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
AC Oulu and VPS attack and defence ratings
AC Oulu
VPS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
AC Oulu vs VPS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Oulu | 43.9% | 2.28 | +4.8% | 2.46 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Oulu | 43.9% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| VPS | 28.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.9% |
| No | 57.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Oulu win | 32.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 41.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.2% |
| 2-0 | 12.6% | |
| 1-1 | 12.3% |
AC Oulu vs VPS stats
AC Oulu and VPS recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AC Oulu and VPS season so far
AC Oulu record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VPS record
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Oulu vs VPS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | VPS | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-06-23 | VPS | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 5-1 |
| 2026-04-18 | AC Oulu | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-24 | VPS | AC Oulu | League Cup | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-04 | AC Oulu | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 2-0 |
| 2025-06-28 | AC Oulu | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | VPS | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 4-3 |
| 2025-02-08 | VPS | AC Oulu | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-17 | AC Oulu | VPS | Friendlies Clubs | 3-3 |
| 2024-06-19 | VPS | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AC Oulu vs VPS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 28.5%, away 32.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.30 | 2.91 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.25 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.46 | 3.35 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.34 | 2.98 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .