KuPS
vs
Gnistan
Garuda Lions Prediction: KuPS
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — KuPS is the favourite, not a value bet.
KuPS vs Gnistan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KuPS vs Gnistan
| Probability | KuPS | Draw | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.5% | 29.3% | 32.1% |
| Market | 61.0% | 22.0% | 17.1% |
| Final | 55.4% | 23.8% | 20.8% |
| Edge | -5.6% | +1.8% | +3.8% |
Why KuPS
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.2% per unit staked (our 55.4% × 1.55 − 1).
KuPS vs Gnistan match preview
In the upcoming Veikkausliiga match, KuPS hosts Gnistan with a 37% probability of winning according to our model, while a draw stands at 32% and Gnistan at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood. The expected goals for KuPS are 1.14, compared to Gnistan's 1.02, indicating a closely contested match.
Recent form shows KuPS with a mixed record of L-W-L-L-L-W, while Gnistan has struggled, recording L-L-D-D-W-D. Historically, KuPS has dominated this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters, with Gnistan yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KuPS and Gnistan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
KuPS and Gnistan attack and defence ratings
KuPS
Gnistan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
KuPS vs Gnistan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KuPS | 55.4% | 1.81 | -5.6% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KuPS | 55.4% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Gnistan | 20.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% |
| No | 47.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | KuPS win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 61.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
KuPS vs Gnistan stats
KuPS and Gnistan recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KuPS and Gnistan season so far
KuPS record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Gnistan record
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KuPS vs Gnistan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Gnistan | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Gnistan | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | KuPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-30 | KuPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Gnistan | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 0-4 |
| 2025-07-01 | KuPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 6-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Gnistan | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-07 | KuPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 3-1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Gnistan | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2021-03-20 | KuPS | Gnistan | Suomen Cup | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
KuPS vs Gnistan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.0%, draw 22.0%, away 17.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.10 | 5.34 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.40 | 5.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .