Inter Turku
vs
Gnistan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inter Turku
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Inter Turku is the favourite, not a value bet.
Inter Turku vs Gnistan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inter Turku vs Gnistan
| Probability | Inter Turku | Draw | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.4% | 30.0% | 27.6% |
| Market | 67.5% | 19.2% | 13.3% |
| Final | 61.2% | 21.9% | 16.9% |
| Edge | -6.3% | +2.7% | +3.6% |
Why Inter Turku
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.3% per unit staked (our 61.2% × 1.40 − 1).
Inter Turku vs Gnistan match preview
Inter Turku faces Gnistan in the Veikkausliiga with a projected probability of 46% for a home win, while a draw stands at 31% and an away victory for Gnistan at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 14%. Inter Turku's expected goals are 1.31, compared to Gnistan’s 0.83.
In terms of recent form, Inter Turku has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Gnistan has struggled with three losses, two draws, and one win. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Inter Turku has secured six victories, with Gnistan winning twice and two matches ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Inter Turku and Gnistan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Inter Turku and Gnistan attack and defence ratings
Inter Turku
Gnistan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Inter Turku vs Gnistan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Turku | 61.2% | 1.63 | -6.3% | 1.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Turku | 61.2% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Gnistan | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Turku win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 57.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Inter Turku vs Gnistan stats
Inter Turku and Gnistan recent form
| Inter Turku |
LWLWDW |
| Gnistan |
DLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inter Turku and Gnistan season so far
Inter Turku record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gnistan record
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter Turku vs Gnistan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Gnistan | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Inter Turku | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-05 | Gnistan | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gnistan | Inter Turku | League Cup | 0-3 |
| 2025-10-22 | Inter Turku | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Gnistan | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga | 0-2 |
| 2025-06-27 | Gnistan | Inter Turku | Veikkausliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Inter Turku | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Inter Turku | Gnistan | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | Inter Turku | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Inter Turku vs Gnistan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.5%, draw 19.2%, away 13.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 4.85 | 6.90 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.39 | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.85 | 6.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.23 | 7.82 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .