VPS
vs
HJK Helsinki
Garuda Lions Prediction: HJK Helsinki
0 – 2 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.66.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — HJK Helsinki is the favourite, not a value bet.
VPS vs HJK Helsinki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: VPS vs HJK Helsinki
| Probability | VPS | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9.3% | 19.9% | 70.8% |
| Market | 13.4% | 18.9% | 67.7% |
| Final | 12.4% | 19.1% | 68.5% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +0.3% | +0.8% |
Why HJK Helsinki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.8% per unit staked (our 68.5% × 1.42 − 1).
VPS vs HJK Helsinki match preview
VPS faces HJK Helsinki in a Veikkausliiga matchup on November 2, 2026. According to our model, VPS has a 9% chance of winning, while HJK Helsinki is favored with a 71% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 14%. The expected goals for VPS is 0.66, in contrast to HJK Helsinki's 2.18, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
Recent form shows VPS struggling with a sequence of losses, recording L-L-W-L-L-L, while HJK Helsinki has been more consistent with D-W-W-W-D-D. In their last ten encounters, VPS has secured 3 wins, while HJK Helsinki has dominated with 6 victories. The model suggests a 54% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 44% likelihood for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
VPS and HJK Helsinki expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
VPS and HJK Helsinki attack and defence ratings
VPS
HJK Helsinki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
VPS vs HJK Helsinki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 68.5% | 1.46 | +0.8% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VPS | 12.4% |
| Draw | 19.1% | |
| HJK Helsinki | 68.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.6% |
| No | 56.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 31.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win | 47.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 29.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% | |
| 0-3 | 9.9% |
VPS vs HJK Helsinki stats
VPS and HJK Helsinki recent form
| VPS |
DLLWLL |
| HJK Helsinki |
WDWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
VPS and HJK Helsinki season so far
VPS record
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HJK Helsinki record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VPS vs HJK Helsinki head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | HJK Helsinki | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 6-0 |
| 2026-07-18 | HJK Helsinki | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-22 | VPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-05 | VPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-26 | HJK Helsinki | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-20 | VPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | VPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 1-3 |
| 2024-05-17 | HJK Helsinki | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-08 | VPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2023-04-19 | HJK Helsinki | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
VPS vs HJK Helsinki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.4%, draw 18.9%, away 67.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.95 | 4.95 | 1.38 |
| Betano | 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.42 |
| Dafabet | 7.00 | 5.20 | 1.41 |
| Marathonbet | 6.95 | 4.95 | 1.37 |
| Pinnacle | 7.40 | 5.28 | 1.37 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .