HJK Helsinki
vs
KuPS
Garuda Lions Prediction: HJK Helsinki
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.76.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HJK Helsinki vs KuPS
| Probability | HJK Helsinki | Draw | KuPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.0% | 20.7% | 11.3% |
| Market | 54.9% | 23.9% | 21.2% |
| Final | 58.2% | 23.1% | 18.7% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -0.8% | -2.5% |
Why HJK Helsinki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices HJK Helsinki below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.0% per unit staked (our 58.2% × 1.84 − 1).
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS match preview
HJK Helsinki enters this match with a solid recent form, having won three of their last six matches, while KuPS has struggled, winning only two of their last six. According to our model, HJK Helsinki has a 58% chance of winning, with an expected goals tally of 2.13 compared to KuPS's 0.76. The most likely scoreline for the match is 2-0, occurring with a probability of 13%.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, our model indicates a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, and a 48% chance that both teams will score. Historically, HJK Helsinki has faced KuPS ten times, with HJK securing two wins, while KuPS has five victories and three matches ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HJK Helsinki and KuPS expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
HJK Helsinki and KuPS attack and defence ratings
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 58.2% | 1.72 | +3.3% | 1.84 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 58.2% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| KuPS | 18.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win | 44.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 32.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 1-1 | 9.9% |
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS stats
HJK Helsinki and KuPS recent form
| HJK Helsinki |
WWWDDW |
| KuPS |
LWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HJK Helsinki and KuPS season so far
HJK Helsinki record
- They have won 15 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KuPS record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | KuPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2026-06-27 | HJK Helsinki | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 0-4 |
| 2026-04-26 | KuPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | HJK Helsinki | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-19 | KuPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | HJK Helsinki | KuPS | Suomen Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-27 | KuPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-31 | HJK Helsinki | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-15 | HJK Helsinki | KuPS | League Cup | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-19 | KuPS | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.7%, draw 24.2%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.46 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.95 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.88 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.20 | 3.38 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .