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Veikkausliiga · Full time ·Championship Group - 28

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan

4 – 0 Full time

12′Gabriel Europaeus
30′Artur Atarah
45′Teemu PukkiLiam Möller
47′Sergey Eremenko
50′Mads Borchers
53′Edmund Arko-Mensah
57′Joakim LatonenRoman Eremenko
57′Saku YlätupaDanny Pérez
60′Santeri Haarala
60′Pakwo Abdoul Rachide GnanouJuhani Ojala
66′Mads Borchers
74′Santeri HaaralaLucas Lingman
74′Pyry MentuJoona Veteli
74′Alexander RingMartin Kirilov
79′Artur AtarahOtto Hannula
82′Ville TikkanenTill Cissokho
90′Mads Borchers

Bolt Arena, HelsinkiReferee: Peiman Simani

HJK Helsinki 62%
Draw 21%
Gnistan 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 11
10 Shots on target 4
63 Possession % 37
4 Corners 6
7 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1
4 Saves 6
570 Accurate passes 193

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan overview

Garuda Lions analysis: HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHJK HelsinkiDrawGnistan
Model53.7%25.7%20.6%
Market64.2%19.8%15.9%
Final61.6%21.3%17.1%
Edge-10.5%+5.9%+4.7%

Confidence: Low

Why HJK Helsinki

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

HJK Helsinki ↓ / Gnistan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 12% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 7%

HJK Helsinki and Gnistan expected goals

HJK Helsinki 1.77
Gnistan 1.01

Total expected goals: 2.77

HJK Helsinki and Gnistan attack and defence ratings

HJK Helsinki

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Gnistan

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan: result vs prediction

HJK Helsinki 4 – 0 Gnistan

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Championship Group - 28 fixtures

Veikkausliiga

Before and after this match

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 HJK Helsinki 61.6% 1.62 -10.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.4% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.9% 1.86 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.9% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.0% 2.18 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2HJK Helsinki61.6%
Draw21.3%
Gnistan17.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%
Both teams to scoreYes53.9%
No46.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.9%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)38.4%
Handicap -1HJK Helsinki win30.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss46.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.3%
1-09.9%
2-19.8%

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan stats

HJK Helsinki and Gnistan recent form

newest first
HJK Helsinki WWDDWW
Gnistan LDDWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

HJK Helsinki and Gnistan going into this match

league record before kick-off

HJK Helsinki record

  • They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gnistan record

  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4HJK Helsinki wins 2Draws 4Gnistan wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-18GnistanHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga1-1
2026-08-23HJK HelsinkiGnistanVeikkausliiga2-3
2026-04-18GnistanHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga0-3
2026-03-10HJK HelsinkiGnistanFriendlies Clubs3-0
2026-02-07HJK HelsinkiGnistanLeague Cup3-1
2025-11-03GnistanHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga2-2
2025-10-03HJK HelsinkiGnistanVeikkausliiga2-3
2025-07-28GnistanHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga2-4
2025-04-22HJK HelsinkiGnistanVeikkausliiga0-1
2025-01-11HJK HelsinkiGnistanLeague Cup0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.8%, draw 20.1%, away 16.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.45 4.75 5.91
Bet365 1.45 4.33 5.50
BetVictor 1.40 4.60 5.75
Betano 1.47 4.60 5.70
Betfair 1.40 4.60 5.50
Dafabet 1.49 4.90 5.80
Marathonbet 1.44 4.75 5.90
Pinnacle 1.47 5.11 6.12
SBO 1.41 4.22 5.03
William Hill 1.44 4.60 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▼ -0.04
X 4.67 ▲ +0.17
2 5.83 ▲ +0.46

11 snapshots recorded, from .