Gnistan
vs
AC Oulu
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gnistan
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Gnistan vs AC Oulu overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gnistan vs AC Oulu
| Probability | Gnistan | Draw | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.3% | 30.5% | 26.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.3% | 30.5% | 26.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Gnistan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.97.
Gnistan vs AC Oulu match preview
Gnistan faces AC Oulu in the Veikkausliiga with a forecasted probability of 43% for a Gnistan win, 30% for a draw, and 26% for an AC Oulu victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Expected goals suggest Gnistan will score around 1.32, while AC Oulu is projected to net approximately 0.97.
In terms of recent form, Gnistan has recorded two losses, two draws, and one win in their last five matches, while AC Oulu has one win, four losses, and one draw in the same timeframe. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Gnistan has achieved six victories compared to AC Oulu's three wins. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gnistan and AC Oulu expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.29
Gnistan and AC Oulu attack and defence ratings
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gnistan vs AC Oulu markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 43.3% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| AC Oulu | 26.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.8% |
| No | 53.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gnistan win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 56.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.4% |
Gnistan vs AC Oulu stats
Gnistan and AC Oulu recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gnistan and AC Oulu season so far
Gnistan record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Oulu record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gnistan vs AC Oulu head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | AC Oulu | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-18 | AC Oulu | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gnistan | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 1-5 |
| 2025-08-25 | Gnistan | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-10 | AC Oulu | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 2-3 |
| 2024-09-27 | Gnistan | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Gnistan | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-11 | AC Oulu | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2020-10-17 | Gnistan | AC Oulu | Ykkönen | 1-2 |
| 2020-06-27 | AC Oulu | Gnistan | Ykkönen | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.