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Veikkausliiga · Full time ·Championship Group - 27

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki

3 – 4 Full time

20′Mads Borchers
41′Liam Möller
48′Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo
53′Tuomas Kaukua
55′Joel lotvonenLamine Ghezali
64′Mads Borchers
68′Liam MöllerJoona Veteli
75′Otto KemppainenAdramane Cassama
75′Markus ArsaloJuuso Mäkeläinen
75′Camilo Jose·Triana FragozoRoope Riski
77′Roope Riski
79′Mikko Pitkanen
80′Lamine Ghezali
84′Mikko Pitkanen
86′Joona Veteli
89′Pyry MentuMouhamed Gueye
89′Santeri HaaralaKaius Simojoki
90′Juuso Mäkeläinen

OTC Stadion, OuluReferee: Antti Munukka

AC Oulu 20%
Draw 26%
HJK Helsinki 54%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 6
40 Possession % 60
6 Corners 6
12 Fouls 7
3 Offsides 2
2 Saves 1
292 Accurate passes 430

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAC OuluDrawHJK Helsinki
Model14.3%28.3%57.4%
Market22.1%24.6%53.3%
Final20.1%25.5%54.3%
Edge-2.0%+0.9%+1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why HJK Helsinki

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.63.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AC Oulu ↓ / HJK Helsinki → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 17% 13% 1 12% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 36%
No goals 13%

AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki expected goals

AC Oulu 0.63
HJK Helsinki 1.50

Total expected goals: 2.12

AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki attack and defence ratings

AC Oulu

Attack 0.59 -41%
Defence 0.84 -16%

HJK Helsinki

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 0.68 -32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki: result vs prediction

AC Oulu 3 – 4 HJK Helsinki

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Championship Group - 27 fixtures

Veikkausliiga

Before and after this match

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 HJK Helsinki 54.3% 1.84 +1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.3% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score No 62.8% 1.59 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.9% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.6% 2.35 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AC Oulu20.1%
Draw25.5%
HJK Helsinki54.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.7%
Under 2.564.3%
Both teams to scoreYes37.2%
No62.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.7%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)79.9%
Handicap -1HJK Helsinki win30.8%
Push (exactly one goal)26.6%
Loss42.6%
Correct score (top 3)0-116.8%
0-213.4%
0-013.1%

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki stats

AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki recent form

newest first
AC Oulu WLLLDW
HJK Helsinki WDDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki going into this match

league record before kick-off

AC Oulu record

  • They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HJK Helsinki record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3AC Oulu wins 1Draws 6HJK Helsinki wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-09AC OuluHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga0-1
2026-04-11HJK HelsinkiAC OuluVeikkausliiga0-1
2026-03-14AC OuluHJK HelsinkiLeague Cup2-1
2025-08-21HJK HelsinkiAC OuluSuomen Cup1-0
2025-07-20HJK HelsinkiAC OuluVeikkausliiga3-1
2025-06-14AC OuluHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga0-4
2024-07-27HJK HelsinkiAC OuluVeikkausliiga3-0
2024-05-31AC OuluHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga1-0
2023-08-27AC OuluHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga1-3
2023-04-23HJK HelsinkiAC OuluVeikkausliiga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.1%, draw 24.6%, away 53.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.18 3.88 1.75
Bet365 4.20 3.70 1.70
BetVictor 4.20 3.70 1.70
Betano 4.20 3.80 1.75
Betfair 4.20 3.75 1.67
Dafabet 4.40 3.90 1.77
Marathonbet 4.20 3.88 1.73
Pinnacle 4.47 4.01 1.78
SBO 3.77 3.36 1.71
William Hill 4.20 3.60 1.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.20 ▲ +0.81
X 3.77 ▲ +0.27
2 1.74 ▼ -0.22

13 snapshots recorded, from .