AC Oulu
vs
HJK Helsinki
Garuda Lions Prediction: HJK Helsinki
0 – 1 Predicted score · 17% model probability
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki
| Probability | AC Oulu | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.3% | 28.4% | 57.3% |
| Market | 21.6% | 24.1% | 54.3% |
| Final | 19.8% | 25.2% | 55.1% |
| Edge | -7.3% | +4.3% | +3.0% |
Why HJK Helsinki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices HJK Helsinki below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki match preview
AC Oulu faces HJK Helsinki in the Veikkausliiga with kickoff set for October 12, 2026. The model probabilities indicate a challenging match for AC Oulu, with a win probability of 18%, while HJK Helsinki stands at 49%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 18%. Expected goals suggest AC Oulu will struggle to find the net, with a projection of only 0.65, compared to HJK Helsinki's 1.23.
Recent form shows AC Oulu struggling with three losses in their last five matches, while HJK Helsinki has a more favorable record with three wins in the same period. In their last four encounters, HJK Helsinki has dominated with three victories, while AC Oulu managed only one win. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki attack and defence ratings
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 55.1% | 1.82 | +3.0% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Oulu | 19.8% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| HJK Helsinki | 55.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.1% |
| No | 62.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.6% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.9% |
| 0-2 | 13.4% | |
| 0-0 | 13.1% |
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki stats
AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki recent form
| AC Oulu |
WLLLDW |
| HJK Helsinki |
WDDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki season so far
AC Oulu record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HJK Helsinki record
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | AC Oulu | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | HJK Helsinki | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-20 | HJK Helsinki | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 3-1 |
| 2025-06-14 | AC Oulu | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.6%, draw 24.1%, away 54.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.18 | 3.88 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 4.35 | 3.80 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.73 |
| Marathonbet | 4.20 | 3.88 | 1.73 |
| Pinnacle | 4.57 | 4.01 | 1.70 |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 3.70 | 1.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .