VPS
vs
Gnistan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gnistan
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
VPS vs Gnistan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: VPS vs Gnistan
| Probability | VPS | Draw | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.2% | 27.7% | 53.1% |
| Market | 40.5% | 26.7% | 32.8% |
| Final | 35.2% | 26.9% | 37.9% |
| Edge | -21.2% | +0.9% | +20.3% |
Why Gnistan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.86.
- The market prices Gnistan below the model: +20.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
VPS vs Gnistan match preview
VPS faces Gnistan in a Veikkausliiga clash where the probabilities suggest a closely contested match. VPS has a 35% chance of winning, while Gnistan holds a slight edge at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with a 13% probability. Expected goals indicate VPS at 0.86 and Gnistan at 1.58, highlighting a potential challenge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, VPS has struggled with three losses in their last five matches, while Gnistan has shown more resilience with three draws and two wins. The head-to-head record reveals that VPS has not secured a win against Gnistan in their last four encounters, with all matches ending in draws. This match presents an intriguing dynamic as both teams look to improve their standings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
VPS and Gnistan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
VPS and Gnistan attack and defence ratings
VPS
Gnistan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
VPS vs Gnistan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 37.9% | 2.64 | +20.3% | 2.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VPS | 35.2% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Gnistan | 37.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.9% |
| No | 53.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gnistan win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | |
| 0-2 | 10.9% |
VPS vs Gnistan stats
VPS and Gnistan recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
VPS and Gnistan season so far
VPS record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gnistan record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VPS vs Gnistan head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Gnistan | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Gnistan | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-18 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
VPS vs Gnistan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.5%, draw 26.7%, away 32.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.34 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.29 | 3.50 | 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | 3.56 | 2.92 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .