Veikkausliiga
·
Full time
·Championship Group - 27
VPS
vs
Gnistan
1 – 0 Full time
| 36′ | Xavier Odhiambo | ||
| 45′ | Artur AtarahJoakim Latonen | ||
| 61′ | Danny PérezSergey Eremenko | ||
| 61′ | Adam JouhiSaku Ylätupa | ||
| 64′ | Xavier OdhiamboHenri Salomaa | ||
| 64′ | Casper HolmelundJonathan Muzinga | ||
| 75′ | Jayden TurfkruierYassin Daoussi | ||
| 75′ | Joonas VahteraSimon Lindholm | ||
| 76′ | Edmund Arko-MensahOtto Hannula | ||
| 85′ | Stephen Ayomide Oluwagbenga ObileyeNoah Rossi | ||
| 87′ | Antti-Ville RaisanenRazak Simpson | ||
| 87′ | Gnistan |
VPS
34%
Draw
28%
Gnistan
39%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 353 | Accurate passes | 330 |
VPS vs Gnistan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: VPS vs Gnistan
| Probability | VPS | Draw | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.2% | 27.6% | 53.2% |
| Market | 38.9% | 27.5% | 33.7% |
| Final | 34.0% | 27.5% | 38.5% |
| Edge | -4.9% | +0.0% | +4.9% |
Why Gnistan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.86.
- The market prices Gnistan below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
71%
3+ goals
44%
No goals
10%
VPS and Gnistan expected goals
VPS
0.86
Gnistan
1.58
Total expected goals: 2.44
VPS and Gnistan attack and defence ratings
VPS
Attack
0.69 -31%
Defence
1.16 +16%
Gnistan
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.80 -20%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
VPS vs Gnistan: result vs prediction
VPS 1 – 0 Gnistan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Championship Group - 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
VPS vs Gnistan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 38.5% | 2.60 | +4.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VPS | 34.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Gnistan | 38.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gnistan win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 46.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | |
| 0-2 | 10.9% |
VPS vs Gnistan stats
VPS and Gnistan recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
VPS and Gnistan going into this match
VPS record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gnistan record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VPS vs Gnistan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3VPS wins
4Draws
3Gnistan wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Gnistan | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Gnistan | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-18 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-23 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-04 | Gnistan | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-20 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2021-10-16 | Gnistan | VPS | Ykkönen | 1-4 |
| 2021-07-18 | Gnistan | VPS | Ykkönen | 2-0 |
| 2021-05-12 | VPS | Gnistan | Ykkönen | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
VPS vs Gnistan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 27.5%, away 33.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.48 | 2.71 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.48 | 2.71 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 3.61 | 2.90 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 3.07 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.38 ▲ +0.43
X
3.38 ▼ -0.17
2
2.75 ▼ -0.64
13 snapshots recorded, from .