Garuda Lions
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Veikkausliiga · Full time ·Matchday 21

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan

2 – 3 Full time

Bolt Arena, HelsinkiReferee: Eetu Silen, Finland

HJK Helsinki 54%
Draw 24%
Gnistan 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan overview

Garuda Lions analysis: HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHJK HelsinkiDrawGnistan
Model40.3%27.7%32.1%
Market58.2%22.2%19.6%
Final53.7%23.6%22.7%
Edge-18.0%+5.5%+12.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

HJK Helsinki ↓ / Gnistan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 8% 13% 8% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 7%

HJK Helsinki and Gnistan expected goals

HJK Helsinki 1.48
Gnistan 1.30

Total expected goals: 2.78

HJK Helsinki and Gnistan attack and defence ratings

HJK Helsinki

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Gnistan

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan: result vs prediction

HJK Helsinki 2 – 3 Gnistan

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Veikkausliiga

Before and after this match

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 HJK Helsinki 53.7% 1.86 -18.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.5% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.3% 1.75 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.3% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.7% 1.67 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2HJK Helsinki53.7%
Draw23.6%
Gnistan22.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%
Both teams to scoreYes57.3%
No42.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.3%
12 (either side)76.4%
X2 (draw or away)46.3%
Handicap -1HJK Helsinki win20.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.2%
Loss59.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
2-18.8%
1-08.0%

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan stats

HJK Helsinki and Gnistan recent form

newest first
HJK Helsinki WLWDLW
Gnistan WDLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

HJK Helsinki and Gnistan going into this match

league record before kick-off

HJK Helsinki record

  • They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gnistan record

  • They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

5HJK Helsinki wins 1Draws 3Gnistan wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18GnistanHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga0-3
2026-03-10HJK HelsinkiGnistanFriendlies Clubs3-0
2026-02-07HJK HelsinkiGnistanLeague Cup3-1
2025-11-03GnistanHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga2-2
2025-10-03HJK HelsinkiGnistanVeikkausliiga2-3
2025-07-28GnistanHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga2-4
2025-04-22HJK HelsinkiGnistanVeikkausliiga0-1
2025-01-11HJK HelsinkiGnistanLeague Cup0-1
2024-06-12GnistanHJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.1%, draw 22.3%, away 19.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.60 4.00 4.70
1xBet 1.61 4.20 4.82
888Sport 1.60 4.00 4.60
Bet365 1.57 4.00 4.75
BetVictor 1.55 4.20 4.75
Betano 1.62 4.15 4.70
Betfair 1.55 4.20 4.60
Dafabet 1.63 4.40 4.80
Marathonbet 1.59 4.20 4.90
Pinnacle 1.64 4.45 4.93
SBO 1.55 4.08 4.67
Superbet 1.61 4.20 4.60
Unibet 1.57 4.00 4.75
William Hill 1.60 4.00 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▼ -0.02
X 4.20 ▲ +0.13
2 4.75 ▲ +0.18

3 snapshots recorded, from .