Ilves
vs
HJK Helsinki
1 – 2 Full time
| 14′ | O. PetterssonG. Bamba | ||
| 23′ | Martin Kirilov | ||
| 55′ | Faris Krkalić | ||
| 57′ | A. Ring | ||
| 59′ | K. Wallius | ||
| 69′ | L. Ala-MyllymakiO. Multala | ||
| 69′ | T. MiettunenE. Tamminen | ||
| 73′ | M. KirilovM. Borchers | ||
| 73′ | A. CicaleL. Lappalainen | ||
| 73′ | M. Borchers | ||
| 77′ | A. RingM. Gueye | ||
| 82′ | J. KiloY. Raap | ||
| 82′ | T. HytonenH. Coulibaly | ||
| 87′ | P. MentuN. Alho | ||
| 87′ | HJK HelsinkiJ. Kallinen |
Ilves vs HJK Helsinki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ilves vs HJK Helsinki
| Probability | Ilves | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.6% | 29.7% | 38.7% |
| Market | 25.0% | 23.8% | 51.2% |
| Final | 26.7% | 25.2% | 48.1% |
| Edge | +6.5% | +5.9% | -12.5% |
Why HJK Helsinki
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ilves and HJK Helsinki expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Ilves and HJK Helsinki attack and defence ratings
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ilves vs HJK Helsinki: result vs prediction
Ilves 1 – 2 HJK Helsinki
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 22 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ilves vs HJK Helsinki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 48.1% | 2.08 | -12.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ilves | 26.7% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| HJK Helsinki | 48.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 0-0 | 9.8% |
Ilves vs HJK Helsinki stats
Ilves and HJK Helsinki recent form
| Ilves |
LLDWLL |
| HJK Helsinki |
LWLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ilves and HJK Helsinki going into this match
Ilves record
- They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HJK Helsinki record
- They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ilves vs HJK Helsinki head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | HJK Helsinki | Ilves | Suomen Cup | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-16 | HJK Helsinki | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-30 | Ilves | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-29 | HJK Helsinki | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-11 | HJK Helsinki | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 5-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Ilves | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2024-09-28 | HJK Helsinki | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-06 | Ilves | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-25 | HJK Helsinki | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ilves vs HJK Helsinki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 23.8%, away 51.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.82 |
| 1xBet | 3.76 | 3.96 | 1.82 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.85 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.86 |
| Marathonbet | 3.78 | 3.96 | 1.80 |
| Pinnacle | 3.93 | 4.20 | 1.84 |
| SBO | 3.57 | 3.64 | 1.81 |
| Superbet | 3.65 | 3.85 | 1.85 |
| Unibet | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| William Hill | 3.70 | 3.80 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .