Ilves vs VPS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ilves vs VPS
| Probability | Ilves | Draw | VPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.5% | 28.9% | 30.6% |
| Market | 40.2% | 26.5% | 33.3% |
| Final | 40.2% | 27.1% | 32.6% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +2.4% | -2.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
47%
No goals
9%
Ilves and VPS expected goals
Ilves
1.39
VPS
1.18
Total expected goals: 2.56
Ilves and VPS attack and defence ratings
Ilves
Attack
0.93 -7%
Defence
0.80 -20%
VPS
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
0.93 -7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ilves vs VPS: result vs prediction
Ilves 0 – 1 VPS
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ilves vs VPS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ilves | 40.2% | 2.48 | +0.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ilves | 40.2% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| VPS | 32.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% |
| No | 46.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ilves win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 59.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.0% |
Ilves vs VPS stats
Ilves and VPS recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ilves and VPS going into this match
Ilves record
- They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VPS record
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
Ilves vs VPS head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
1Ilves wins
0Draws
2VPS wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | VPS | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2025-07-14 | Ilves | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-02 | VPS | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ilves vs VPS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 26.5%, away 33.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.84 |
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.58 | 2.68 |
| 888Sport | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.55 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.38 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.56 | 2.73 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 3.76 | 2.80 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.24 | 2.56 |
| Superbet | 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.77 |
| Unibet | 2.23 | 3.45 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 |