KuPS
vs
Mariehamn
2 – 4 Full time
KuPS vs Mariehamn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KuPS vs Mariehamn
| Probability | KuPS | Draw | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.8% | 20.8% | 9.4% |
| Market | 74.6% | 15.5% | 9.8% |
| Final | 73.4% | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Edge | -4.8% | +5.2% | -0.4% |
Why KuPS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KuPS and Mariehamn expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
KuPS and Mariehamn attack and defence ratings
KuPS
Mariehamn
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
KuPS vs Mariehamn: result vs prediction
KuPS 2 – 4 Mariehamn
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
KuPS vs Mariehamn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KuPS | 73.4% | 1.36 | -4.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | KuPS win | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KuPS | 73.4% |
| Draw | 16.9% | |
| Mariehamn | 9.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.7% |
| No | 58.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | KuPS win | 45.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 30.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | |
| 3-0 | 9.8% |
KuPS vs Mariehamn stats
KuPS and Mariehamn recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KuPS and Mariehamn going into this match
KuPS record
- They have won 12 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Mariehamn record
- They have won 3 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KuPS vs Mariehamn head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Mariehamn | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Mariehamn | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-23 | KuPS | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
KuPS vs Mariehamn odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.4%, draw 15.8%, away 9.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.19 | 5.75 | 13.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.24 | 6.15 | 10.50 |
| 888Sport | 1.25 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 5.75 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.25 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.26 | 6.40 | 9.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.23 | 6.15 | 10.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.28 | 6.65 | 8.66 |
| SBO | 1.25 | 5.61 | 8.10 |
| Superbet | 1.25 | 6.10 | 8.60 |
| Unibet | 1.24 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.80 | 9.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .