FH hafnarfjordur
vs
Thor Akureyri
Garuda Lions Prediction: FH hafnarfjordur
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.05.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri
| Probability | FH hafnarfjordur | Draw | Thor Akureyri |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.0% | 21.2% | 15.8% |
| Market | 44.6% | 23.5% | 31.9% |
| Final | 49.2% | 22.9% | 27.9% |
| Edge | +4.6% | -0.6% | -4.0% |
Why FH hafnarfjordur
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.05.
- The market prices FH hafnarfjordur below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.9% per unit staked (our 49.2% × 2.09 − 1).
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri match preview
FH Hafnarfjordur enters the match against Thor Akureyri with a 63% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21% and Thor Akureyri at 16%. The expected goals for FH Hafnarfjordur stand at 2.22, compared to 1.04 for Thor Akureyri, suggesting a strong offensive performance is anticipated from the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, FH Hafnarfjordur has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Thor Akureyri has achieved four wins and two losses. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters favors FH Hafnarfjordur with three wins, two draws, and one win for Thor Akureyri. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FH hafnarfjordur and Thor Akureyri expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
FH hafnarfjordur and Thor Akureyri attack and defence ratings
FH hafnarfjordur
Thor Akureyri
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FH hafnarfjordur | 49.2% | 2.03 | +4.6% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FH hafnarfjordur win | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FH hafnarfjordur | 49.2% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Thor Akureyri | 27.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FH hafnarfjordur win | 41.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 37.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri stats
FH hafnarfjordur and Thor Akureyri recent form
| FH hafnarfjordur |
LWWWLW |
| Thor Akureyri |
WWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FH hafnarfjordur and Thor Akureyri season so far
FH hafnarfjordur record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Thor Akureyri record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Thor Akureyri | FH hafnarfjordur | Úrvalsdeild | 1-0 |
| 2026-06-21 | FH hafnarfjordur | Thor Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Thor Akureyri | FH hafnarfjordur | Cup | 2-4 |
| 2025-03-11 | Thor Akureyri | FH hafnarfjordur | League Cup | 2-2 |
| 2021-03-06 | FH hafnarfjordur | Thor Akureyri | League Cup | 4-0 |
| 2020-07-30 | FH hafnarfjordur | Thor Akureyri | Cup | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FH hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.6%, draw 23.4%, away 32.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.96 | 2.87 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.90 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 4.00 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.90 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.96 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 4.19 | 2.77 |
| SBO | 1.97 | 3.44 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .