Thor Akureyri
vs
Stjarnan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stjarnan
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan
| Probability | Thor Akureyri | Draw | Stjarnan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.3% | 26.8% | 36.8% |
| Market | 34.9% | 22.4% | 42.8% |
| Final | 35.2% | 23.5% | 41.3% |
| Edge | +1.5% | +4.5% | -5.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan match preview
Thor Akureyri faces Stjarnan in their upcoming Úrvalsdeild match, with kickoff scheduled for October 17, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for a win are 36% for Thor Akureyri, 27% for a draw, and 37% for Stjarnan. The expected goals are closely matched, with Thor Akureyri at 1.47 and Stjarnan at 1.48. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Stjarnan, occurring at an 8% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Thor Akureyri has recorded two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Stjarnan has achieved three wins, one draw, and one loss in the same timeframe. Historical head-to-head results show that Thor Akureyri has not won against Stjarnan in their last two encounters, with Stjarnan winning both matches. The model indicates a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan attack and defence ratings
Thor Akureyri
Stjarnan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stjarnan | 41.3% | 2.42 | -5.9% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Thor Akureyri | 35.2% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Stjarnan | 41.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% |
| No | 39.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stjarnan win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 63.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.4% |
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan stats
Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan recent form
| Thor Akureyri |
WLLWWL |
| Stjarnan |
LLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Thor Akureyri and Stjarnan season so far
Thor Akureyri record
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stjarnan record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Stjarnan | Thor Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 4-2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thor Akureyri | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 1-3 |
| 2024-06-12 | Thor Akureyri | Stjarnan | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-18 | Thor Akureyri | Stjarnan | League Cup | 5-1 |
| 2022-02-19 | Thor Akureyri | Stjarnan | League Cup | 1-1 |
| 2019-03-09 | Thor Akureyri | Stjarnan | League Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 22.4%, away 42.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 4.40 | 2.14 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 4.05 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 4.00 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 4.10 | 2.19 |
| Marathonbet | 2.59 | 4.40 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 4.63 | 2.15 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 3.92 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .