Stjarnan
vs
Valur Reykjavik
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stjarnan
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Stjarnan is the favourite, not a value bet.
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik
| Probability | Stjarnan | Draw | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.5% | 21.2% | 43.3% |
| Market | 49.4% | 21.5% | 29.0% |
| Final | 46.0% | 21.4% | 32.6% |
| Edge | -3.5% | -0.1% | +3.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.2% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 1.91 − 1).
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik match preview
Stjarnan faces Valur Reykjavik in an upcoming Úrvalsdeild match on October 24, 2026. Stjarnan has a 47% probability of winning, while Valur Reykjavik stands at 32%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance that both teams will score. Expected goals are 2.04 for Stjarnan and 2.24 for Valur Reykjavik.
In terms of recent form, Stjarnan has recorded three losses followed by a win and two draws, while Valur Reykjavik has shown a stronger performance with two wins, a draw, and one loss in their last five matches. The head-to-head record over the last five encounters favors Stjarnan with three wins compared to Valur Reykjavik's two. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.27
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik attack and defence ratings
Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stjarnan | 46.0% | 2.18 | -3.5% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stjarnan | 46.0% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Valur Reykjavik | 32.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.3% |
| No | 21.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stjarnan win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.9% | |
| Loss | 64.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-2 | 7.1% | |
| 1-1 | 7.0% |
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik stats
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik recent form
| Stjarnan |
LLLWDW |
| Valur Reykjavik |
WLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stjarnan and Valur Reykjavik season so far
Stjarnan record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
Valur Reykjavik record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Valur Reykjavik | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 2-3 |
| 2026-04-27 | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 2-4 |
| 2025-10-04 | Valur Reykjavik | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 3-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | Valur Reykjavik | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 1-2 |
| 2025-07-01 | Valur Reykjavik | Stjarnan | Cup | 3-1 |
| 2025-06-14 | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 3-2 |
| 2024-09-23 | Valur Reykjavik | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-30 | Valur Reykjavik | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 5-1 |
| 2024-04-19 | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-17 | Valur Reykjavik | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 21.6%, away 29.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 4.40 | 3.24 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 4.10 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 4.25 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 4.20 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 4.40 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 4.38 | 3.25 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 3.88 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .