Valur Reykjavik
vs
KA Akureyri
Garuda Lions Prediction: Valur Reykjavik
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri
| Probability | Valur Reykjavik | Draw | KA Akureyri |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 21.3% | 35.5% |
| Market | 43.2% | 23.1% | 33.7% |
| Final | 43.2% | 22.6% | 34.1% |
| Edge | -0.0% | -1.8% | +1.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri match preview
Valur Reykjavik faces KA Akureyri in the Úrvalsdeild with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Valur Reykjavik has recorded a mixed bag of results, with their last six matches yielding two wins, two draws, and two losses. In contrast, KA Akureyri has managed three wins and two draws in their last six outings, although they also have two losses.
The matchup suggests a competitive encounter, with Valur Reykjavik holding a 43% probability of winning compared to KA Akureyri's 35%. The expected goals indicate a slight edge for Valur Reykjavik at 2.22 versus KA Akureyri's 2.01. Both teams are likely to score, with probabilities at 78%, and there is a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals at 79%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Valur Reykjavik.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.23
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri attack and defence ratings
Valur Reykjavik
KA Akureyri
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valur Reykjavik | 43.2% | 2.31 | -0.0% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valur Reykjavik | 43.2% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| KA Akureyri | 34.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.9% |
| No | 22.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Valur Reykjavik win | 25.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.2% | |
| 1-1 | 7.1% |
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri stats
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri recent form
| Valur Reykjavik |
LDWWDL |
| KA Akureyri |
WWLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Valur Reykjavik and KA Akureyri season so far
Valur Reykjavik record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KA Akureyri record
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Valur Reykjavik | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 4-4 |
| 2026-05-22 | KA Akureyri | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-27 | KA Akureyri | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 2-5 |
| 2025-04-23 | Valur Reykjavik | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-06 | KA Akureyri | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-02 | KA Akureyri | Valur Reykjavik | Cup | 3-2 |
| 2024-05-11 | Valur Reykjavik | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 3-1 |
| 2023-08-07 | Valur Reykjavik | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 4-2 |
| 2023-05-13 | KA Akureyri | Valur Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-4 |
| 2023-04-02 | KA Akureyri | Valur Reykjavik | League Cup | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.2%, draw 23.1%, away 33.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.94 | 2.81 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 4.05 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 4.20 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 4.00 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.94 | 2.79 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 4.14 | 2.73 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 3.63 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .