Stjarnan
vs
KA Akureyri
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stjarnan
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri
| Probability | Stjarnan | Draw | KA Akureyri |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 20.6% | 26.0% |
| Market | 51.8% | 21.0% | 27.2% |
| Final | 52.2% | 20.9% | 26.9% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -0.3% | -1.2% |
Why Stjarnan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri match preview
Stjarnan faces KA Akureyri in their upcoming Úrvalsdeild match on October 10, 2026. Stjarnan holds a 53% probability of winning, while KA Akureyri has a 26% chance, and a draw stands at 21%. The expected goals are 2.42 for Stjarnan and 1.69 for KA Akureyri, indicating a strong offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Stjarnan has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while KA Akureyri has one win, two draws, and two losses. Historically, Stjarnan has dominated their recent encounters, winning three of the last four meetings and drawing the other. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Stjarnan, with an 8% likelihood. Over 2.5 goals is expected at 78%, and both teams are predicted to score 75% of the time.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stjarnan and KA Akureyri expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.10
Stjarnan and KA Akureyri attack and defence ratings
Stjarnan
KA Akureyri
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stjarnan | 52.2% | 1.92 | +1.6% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stjarnan | 52.2% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| KA Akureyri | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.9% |
| No | 25.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stjarnan win | 34.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.1% |
| 1-1 | 7.4% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri stats
Stjarnan and KA Akureyri recent form
| Stjarnan |
LWDWWL |
| KA Akureyri |
WLWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stjarnan and KA Akureyri season so far
Stjarnan record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
KA Akureyri record
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Stjarnan | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-12 | KA Akureyri | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 2-3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Stjarnan | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 3-2 |
| 2025-06-01 | KA Akureyri | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-18 | KA Akureyri | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-26 | Stjarnan | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 5-0 |
| 2023-08-26 | KA Akureyri | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 2-1 |
| 2023-06-02 | Stjarnan | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 4-0 |
| 2022-10-23 | Stjarnan | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 0-3 |
| 2022-08-21 | Stjarnan | KA Akureyri | Úrvalsdeild | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.8%, draw 21.0%, away 27.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 4.60 | 3.34 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 4.25 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.33 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.82 | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 4.60 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 4.86 | 3.22 |
| SBO | 1.71 | 3.98 | 3.19 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 4.33 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .