Úrvalsdeild · 2026-09-20T16:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Relegation Group - 2

FH hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan

5 – 2 Full time

14′			J. Bjarnason
21′			G. Gislason
32′			K. Halldorsson
33′			K. Halldorsson
46′			A. LeifssonS. T. Ingimarsson
46′			B. Waren
57′			A. Hauksson
61′			B. Waren
65′			A. HaukssonJ. Gunnarsson
65′			B. HaukssonD. Dankerlui
68′			K. FinnbogasonS. Hjaltested
68′			A. BirgissonG. Tryggvason
68′			G. GislasonA. Gudjohnsen
77′			D. MatthiassonA. Bjarnason
84′			K. HalldorssonA. Gudmundsson
84′			B. IngasonA. Vilhjalmsson
90′			G. Tryggvason
90′			T. RobertssonK. Ketilsson

KaplakrikiReferee: V. Thorarinsson

FH hafnarfjordur

39%

Draw

26%

Stjarnan

36%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

FH hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FH hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FH hafnarfjordur	Draw	Stjarnan
Model	45.4%	29.0%	25.6%
Market	36.5%	24.5%	39.0%
Final	38.7%	25.6%	35.6%
Edge	+8.9%	+4.5%	-13.4%

Confidence: Low

Why FH hafnarfjordur

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 1.03.
The market prices FH hafnarfjordur below the model: +8.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

90%

2+ goals

72%

3+ goals

45%

No goals

10%

FH hafnarfjordur and Stjarnan expected goals

FH hafnarfjordur

1.44

Stjarnan

1.03

Total expected goals: 2.47

FH hafnarfjordur and Stjarnan attack and defence ratings

FH hafnarfjordur

Attack

0.80 -20%

Defence

0.64 -36%

Stjarnan

Attack

1.03 +3%

Defence

0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FH hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan: result vs prediction

FH hafnarfjordur 5 – 2 Stjarnan

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Relegation Group - 2 fixtures

Úrvalsdeild

KA Akureyri vs Thor Akureyri · 2026-09-19
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Valur Reykjavik — team news & stats · 2026-09-20

Before and after this match

FH hafnarfjordur, previous: FH hafnarfjordur vs KA Akureyri: odds and pick
FH hafnarfjordur, next: Valur Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur: odds and pick
Stjarnan, previous: Stjarnan v IBV Vestmannaeyjar analysis
Stjarnan, next: Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri prediction

FH hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FH hafnarfjordur	38.7%	2.58	+8.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	55.1%	1.81	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	50.3%	1.99	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.4%	1.34	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	54.6%	1.83	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FH hafnarfjordur	38.7%
	Draw	25.6%
	Stjarnan	35.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44.9%
	Under 2.5	55.1%
Both teams to score	Yes	50.3%
	No	49.7%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	64.4%
	12 (either side)	74.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	61.3%
Handicap -1	FH hafnarfjordur win	22.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.5%
	Loss	54.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.8%
	1-0	11.0%
	0-0	9.7%

FH hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan stats

FH hafnarfjordur and Stjarnan recent form

newest first

FH hafnarfjordur	WLWDLW
Stjarnan	WDWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FH hafnarfjordur and Stjarnan going into this match

league record before kick-off

FH hafnarfjordur record

They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.

Stjarnan record

They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.

FH hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0FH hafnarfjordur wins 3Draws 7Stjarnan wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-07-03	FH hafnarfjordur	Stjarnan	Úrvalsdeild	2-2
2026-04-17	Stjarnan	FH hafnarfjordur	Úrvalsdeild	3-2
2025-09-21	Stjarnan	FH hafnarfjordur	Úrvalsdeild	0-0
2025-07-07	FH hafnarfjordur	Stjarnan	Úrvalsdeild	1-1
2025-04-07	Stjarnan	FH hafnarfjordur	Úrvalsdeild	2-1
2024-10-26	Stjarnan	FH hafnarfjordur	Úrvalsdeild	3-2
2024-09-01	FH hafnarfjordur	Stjarnan	Úrvalsdeild	0-3
2024-06-18	Stjarnan	FH hafnarfjordur	Úrvalsdeild	4-2
2023-09-24	FH hafnarfjordur	Stjarnan	Úrvalsdeild	1-3
2023-06-29	Stjarnan	FH hafnarfjordur	Úrvalsdeild	5-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FH hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.5%, draw 24.5%, away 39.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.56	3.72	2.34
Bet365	2.45	3.70	2.30
BetVictor	2.30	3.40	2.15
Betano	2.52	3.85	2.37
Betfair	2.40	3.90	2.30
Marathonbet	2.56	3.72	2.34
Pinnacle	2.67	3.88	2.39
SBO	2.34	3.61	2.34
William Hill	2.50	3.50	2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 —

X 3.72 ▼ -0.07

2 2.34 ▼ -0.04

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-14T08:10:01Z.