IA Akranes
vs
Keflavik
Garuda Lions Prediction: IA Akranes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.93 vs 1.51.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — IA Akranes is the favourite, not a value bet.
IA Akranes vs Keflavik overview
Garuda Lions analysis: IA Akranes vs Keflavik
| Probability | IA Akranes | Draw | Keflavik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.2% | 17.0% | 16.9% |
| Market | 60.8% | 19.8% | 19.4% |
| Final | 62.1% | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -0.7% | -0.6% |
Why IA Akranes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.93 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.7% per unit staked (our 62.1% × 1.55 − 1).
IA Akranes vs Keflavik match preview
IA Akranes is projected to have a strong advantage in their upcoming match against Keflavik, with a 62% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for IA Akranes stand at 2.76, compared to Keflavik's 1.56, indicating a likely offensive performance from the home side. The most probable scoreline is 2-1, occurring with an 8% likelihood, and there is an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In terms of recent form, IA Akranes has recorded two draws and two wins in their last five matches, while Keflavik is struggling with six consecutive losses. Historically, Keflavik has had the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning both matches. Despite this, the current form and statistical expectations suggest a favorable outcome for IA Akranes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
IA Akranes and Keflavik expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.44
IA Akranes and Keflavik attack and defence ratings
IA Akranes
Keflavik
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
IA Akranes vs Keflavik markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IA Akranes | 62.1% | 1.61 | +1.3% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | IA Akranes win | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IA Akranes | 62.1% |
| Draw | 19.1% | |
| Keflavik | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.3% |
| No | 25.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | IA Akranes win | 47.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 33.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.6% |
| 3-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 5.8% |
IA Akranes vs Keflavik stats
IA Akranes and Keflavik recent form
| IA Akranes |
WDWLWD |
| Keflavik |
LLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
IA Akranes and Keflavik season so far
IA Akranes record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Keflavik record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
IA Akranes vs Keflavik head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Keflavik | IA Akranes | Úrvalsdeild | 5-2 |
| 2026-05-08 | IA Akranes | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 1-3 |
| 2024-05-16 | Keflavik | IA Akranes | Cup | 3-1 |
| 2023-04-19 | Keflavik | IA Akranes | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-02 | Keflavik | IA Akranes | Úrvalsdeild | 3-2 |
| 2022-08-28 | Keflavik | IA Akranes | Úrvalsdeild | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-29 | IA Akranes | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-2 |
| 2021-10-02 | IA Akranes | Keflavik | Cup | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-25 | Keflavik | IA Akranes | Úrvalsdeild | 2-3 |
| 2021-06-28 | IA Akranes | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
IA Akranes vs Keflavik odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.7%, draw 19.8%, away 19.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.80 | 4.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.33 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.80 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.80 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.94 | 4.75 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 4.41 | 4.51 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.50 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .