KR Reykjavik
vs
Breidablik
Garuda Lions Prediction: KR Reykjavik
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.21 vs 1.48.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik
| Probability | KR Reykjavik | Draw | Breidablik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.9% | 15.1% | 14.0% |
| Market | 56.7% | 18.5% | 24.8% |
| Final | 60.2% | 17.7% | 22.1% |
| Edge | +3.6% | -0.9% | -2.7% |
Why KR Reykjavik
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.21 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices KR Reykjavik below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.4% per unit staked (our 60.2% × 1.70 − 1).
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik match preview
KR Reykjavik faces Breidablik in the Úrvalsdeild with a strong probability of victory for the home side at 71%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 3-1, with an 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% likelihood that both teams will score. KR Reykjavik's expected goals stand at 3.22, while Breidablik's is significantly lower at 1.48.
In terms of recent form, KR Reykjavik has recorded two wins, one loss, one draw, and two additional losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Breidablik has struggled, with only two wins in their last six games, alongside four losses. Historically, the last four encounters show KR Reykjavik with no wins, three draws, and one win for Breidablik, indicating a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.69
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik attack and defence ratings
KR Reykjavik
Breidablik
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KR Reykjavik | 60.2% | 1.66 | +3.6% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | KR Reykjavik win | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KR Reykjavik | 60.2% |
| Draw | 17.7% | |
| Breidablik | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% |
| No | 25.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | KR Reykjavik win | 53.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 29.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.5% |
| 2-1 | 7.0% | |
| 4-1 | 6.0% |
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik stats
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik recent form
| KR Reykjavik |
WWLWLD |
| Breidablik |
LWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik season so far
KR Reykjavik record
- They have won 16 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game at home against 2.9 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Breidablik record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | KR Reykjavik | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild | 3-3 |
| 2026-05-22 | Breidablik | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 6-3 |
| 2025-07-26 | KR Reykjavik | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Breidablik | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 3-3 |
| 2024-07-21 | Breidablik | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 4-2 |
| 2024-04-28 | KR Reykjavik | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild | 2-3 |
| 2023-10-01 | KR Reykjavik | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild | 4-3 |
| 2023-08-06 | Breidablik | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 3-4 |
| 2023-05-13 | KR Reykjavik | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-1 |
| 2022-12-08 | Breidablik | KR Reykjavik | Friendlies Clubs | 3-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.2%, draw 18.9%, away 24.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.95 | 3.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.33 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.70 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.95 | 3.86 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 5.31 | 3.71 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 4.37 | 3.39 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.60 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .