Keflavik
vs
KR Reykjavik
Garuda Lions Prediction: KR Reykjavik
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik
| Probability | Keflavik | Draw | KR Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.7% | 20.8% | 50.5% |
| Market | 22.7% | 19.1% | 58.3% |
| Final | 24.2% | 19.5% | 56.4% |
| Edge | +6.0% | +1.7% | -7.7% |
Why KR Reykjavik
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik match preview
Keflavik faces KR Reykjavik in the Úrvalsdeild with kickoff set for October 17, 2026. The probabilities indicate a 24% chance for Keflavik to win, a 20% likelihood of a draw, and a 56% chance for KR Reykjavik to secure the victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with expected goals of 1.80 for Keflavik and 2.39 for KR Reykjavik.
Keflavik's recent form shows a struggle with five losses in their last six matches, while KR Reykjavik has been more successful, winning four of their last six games. The model suggests a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 76%, reflecting a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Keflavik and KR Reykjavik expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.19
Keflavik and KR Reykjavik attack and defence ratings
Keflavik
KR Reykjavik
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KR Reykjavik | 56.4% | 1.77 | -7.7% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.5% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keflavik | 24.2% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| KR Reykjavik | 56.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.5% |
| No | 23.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | KR Reykjavik win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 49.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.8% |
| 1-1 | 7.2% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik stats
Keflavik and KR Reykjavik recent form
| Keflavik |
LDLLLW |
| KR Reykjavik |
WLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Keflavik and KR Reykjavik season so far
Keflavik record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
KR Reykjavik record
- They have won 15 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game at home against 2.9 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Keflavik | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 3-2 |
| 2026-04-12 | KR Reykjavik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 3-2 |
| 2025-02-03 | KR Reykjavik | Keflavik | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2023-06-28 | KR Reykjavik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-15 | Keflavik | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-2 |
| 2022-08-15 | Keflavik | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-0 |
| 2022-05-16 | KR Reykjavik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 1-0 |
| 2022-02-26 | KR Reykjavik | Keflavik | League Cup | 1-1 |
| 2021-09-11 | Keflavik | KR Reykjavik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-2 |
| 2021-07-12 | KR Reykjavik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.6%, draw 19.2%, away 58.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.18 | 4.85 | 1.58 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 4.00 | 4.60 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 4.75 | 1.55 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 4.90 | 1.61 |
| Marathonbet | 4.20 | 4.85 | 1.56 |
| Pinnacle | 4.25 | 5.06 | 1.59 |
| SBO | 3.64 | 4.24 | 1.52 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 4.50 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .