Breidablik
vs
Keflavik
Garuda Lions Prediction: Breidablik
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Breidablik vs Keflavik overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Breidablik vs Keflavik
| Probability | Breidablik | Draw | Keflavik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.8% | 24.1% | 33.1% |
| Market | 49.6% | 22.9% | 27.6% |
| Final | 47.9% | 23.2% | 28.9% |
| Edge | -6.7% | +1.2% | +5.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Breidablik vs Keflavik match preview
Breidablik faces Keflavik in the Úrvalsdeild with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. Breidablik holds a 48% probability of winning, while Keflavik has a 29% chance, and a draw stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Breidablik, with a 9% likelihood. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals at a rate of 67%, and both teams are projected to score 69% of the time.
In terms of recent form, Breidablik has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Keflavik has managed two wins in their last six games. The head-to-head record shows Breidablik with one win and one draw against Keflavik, who have yet to secure a victory in their last two encounters. Expected goals for Breidablik are at 1.86, while Keflavik's expected goals stand at 1.62.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Breidablik and Keflavik expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.47
Breidablik and Keflavik attack and defence ratings
Breidablik
Keflavik
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Breidablik vs Keflavik markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Breidablik | 47.9% | 2.09 | -6.7% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Breidablik | 47.9% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Keflavik | 28.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% |
| No | 31.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Breidablik win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Breidablik vs Keflavik stats
Breidablik and Keflavik recent form
| Breidablik |
LWLLLD |
| Keflavik |
DLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Breidablik and Keflavik season so far
Breidablik record
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Keflavik record
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
Breidablik vs Keflavik head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Breidablik | Keflavik | Úrvalsdeild | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keflavik | Breidablik | Úrvalsdeild | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Breidablik vs Keflavik odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.6%, draw 22.9%, away 27.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.95 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 4.20 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 4.00 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 4.10 | 3.55 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.64 | 3.07 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .