Úrvalsdeild · 2026-09-20T16:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Championship Group - 2

IA Akranes vs Breidablik

4 – 1 Full time

29′			G. Eyjolfsson
43′			V. Jonsson
46′			G. HallssonV. Einarsson
46′			H. KarlssonH. Gunnlaugsson
49′			O. Omarsson
51′			V. Jonsson
52′			S. EllertssonG. Thorarinsson
65′			H. HaraldssonA. Zumbergs
65′			D. FjeldstedB. Thorsteinsson
65′			K. JonssonJ. Arnarsson
65′			G. UnnarssonG. Saevarsson
69′			M. P. Ellertsson
83′			S. ThorsteinssonO. Stefansson
83′			V. JonssonR. Thrastarson
87′			A. LudvikssonB. O. Jonsson
90′			B. Thorsteinsson

Referee: J. I. Jonsson

IA Akranes

46%

Draw

22%

Breidablik

31%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

IA Akranes vs Breidablik overview

Garuda Lions analysis: IA Akranes vs Breidablik

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	IA Akranes	Draw	Breidablik
Model	52.7%	20.8%	26.4%
Market	44.3%	22.9%	32.8%
Final	46.4%	22.4%	31.2%
Edge	+8.4%	-2.1%	-6.3%

Confidence: Low

Why IA Akranes

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.69.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices IA Akranes below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

98%

2+ goals

92%

3+ goals

77%

No goals

IA Akranes and Breidablik expected goals

IA Akranes

2.39

Breidablik

1.69

Total expected goals: 4.08

IA Akranes and Breidablik attack and defence ratings

IA Akranes

Attack

1.09 +9%

Defence

1.12 +12%

Breidablik

Attack

0.96 -4%

Defence

1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

IA Akranes vs Breidablik: result vs prediction

IA Akranes 4 – 1 Breidablik

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Championship Group - 2 fixtures

Úrvalsdeild

KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Keflavik vs Fram Reykjavik · 2026-09-20

Before and after this match

IA Akranes, previous: KR Reykjavik vs IA Akranes prediction
IA Akranes, next: Vikingur Reykjavik v IA Akranes analysis
Breidablik, previous: Fram Reykjavik vs Breidablik prediction
Breidablik, next: Breidablik – Keflavik, 2026-10-11

IA Akranes vs Breidablik markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	IA Akranes	46.4%	2.15	+8.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	77.3%	1.29	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	74.7%	1.34	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	77.6%	1.29	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	47.3%	2.12	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	IA Akranes	46.4%
	Draw	22.4%
	Breidablik	31.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	77.3%
	Under 2.5	22.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	74.7%
	No	25.3%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	68.8%
	12 (either side)	77.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	53.6%
Handicap -1	IA Akranes win	33.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	19.3%
	Loss	47.3%
Correct score (top 3)	2-1	8.2%
	1-1	7.5%
	2-2	6.9%

IA Akranes vs Breidablik stats

IA Akranes and Breidablik recent form

newest first

IA Akranes	LWDDWW
Breidablik	WLLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

IA Akranes and Breidablik going into this match

league record before kick-off

IA Akranes record

They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Breidablik record

They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IA Akranes vs Breidablik head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2IA Akranes wins 1Draws 7Breidablik wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-07-04	IA Akranes	Breidablik	Úrvalsdeild	1-2
2026-04-17	Breidablik	IA Akranes	Úrvalsdeild	1-0
2025-09-11	IA Akranes	Breidablik	Úrvalsdeild	3-0
2025-05-29	Breidablik	IA Akranes	Úrvalsdeild	1-4
2025-01-18	Breidablik	IA Akranes	Friendlies Clubs	3-2
2024-09-23	Breidablik	IA Akranes	Úrvalsdeild	2-0
2024-08-25	IA Akranes	Breidablik	Úrvalsdeild	1-2
2024-06-23	Breidablik	IA Akranes	Úrvalsdeild	1-1
2024-03-27	Breidablik	IA Akranes	League Cup	4-1
2022-08-01	Breidablik	IA Akranes	Úrvalsdeild	3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

IA Akranes vs Breidablik odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.3%, draw 22.9%, away 32.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.07	4.10	2.84
Bet365	2.05	4.00	2.80
BetVictor	1.91	3.50	2.55
Betano	2.18	3.80	2.82
Betfair	1.95	4.00	2.80
Marathonbet	2.05	4.10	2.82
Pinnacle	2.10	4.35	2.89
SBO	2.12	3.58	2.63
William Hill	2.10	3.80	2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.07 ▼ -0.08

X 4.00 ▼ -0.05

2 2.80 ▲ +0.14

9 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-16T08:10:02Z.