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Premier Division · Full time ·Matchday 29

Drogheda United vs Dundalk

2 – 3 Full time

Weavers Park, DroghedaReferee: N. Doyle

Drogheda United 31%
Draw 27%
Dundalk 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Drogheda United vs Dundalk overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Drogheda United vs Dundalk

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDrogheda UnitedDrawDundalk
Model34.6%28.9%36.5%
Market30.4%26.9%42.7%
Final31.4%27.4%41.2%
Edge+4.2%+2.0%-6.2%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Drogheda Unite ↓ / Dundalk → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 9% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Drogheda United and Dundalk expected goals

Drogheda United 1.28
Dundalk 1.32

Total expected goals: 2.60

Drogheda United and Dundalk attack and defence ratings

Drogheda United

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Dundalk

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Drogheda United vs Dundalk: result vs prediction

Drogheda United 2 – 3 Dundalk

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Premier Division

Before and after this match

Drogheda United vs Dundalk markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dundalk 41.2% 2.43 -6.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.8% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.2% 1.84 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.5% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Drogheda United31.4%
Draw27.4%
Dundalk41.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%
Both teams to scoreYes54.2%
No45.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.8%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)68.6%
Handicap -1Dundalk win17.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss63.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
0-08.7%
0-18.5%

Drogheda United vs Dundalk stats

Drogheda United and Dundalk recent form

newest first
Drogheda United LDDDWL
Dundalk LLDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Drogheda United and Dundalk going into this match

league record before kick-off

Drogheda United record

  • They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Dundalk record

  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Drogheda United vs Dundalk head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3Drogheda United wins 4Draws 2Dundalk wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-10DundalkDrogheda UnitedPremier Division1-2
2026-05-22Drogheda UnitedDundalkPremier Division1-1
2026-02-20DundalkDrogheda UnitedPremier Division1-1
2024-11-01Drogheda UnitedDundalkPremier Division0-0
2024-07-19Drogheda UnitedDundalkFAI Cup2-1
2024-07-12DundalkDrogheda UnitedPremier Division4-2
2024-05-06Drogheda UnitedDundalkPremier Division2-1
2024-04-01DundalkDrogheda UnitedPremier Division0-0
2023-09-29DundalkDrogheda UnitedPremier Division3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Drogheda United vs Dundalk odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.4%, draw 26.9%, away 42.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.05 3.55 2.18
1xBet 3.08 3.54 2.17
Bet365 3.00 3.30 2.15
BetVictor 3.00 3.40 2.15
Betano 3.05 3.45 2.18
Betfair 3.10 3.75 2.10
Dafabet 3.05 3.50 2.20
Marathonbet 3.08 3.54 2.15
Pinnacle 3.14 3.57 2.19
SBO 2.87 3.16 2.06
Superbet 3.00 3.40 2.20
Unibet 3.05 3.45 2.20
William Hill 3.00 3.40 2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.05 ▼ -0.03
X 3.45 ▼ -0.10
2 2.17 ▲ +0.04

14 snapshots recorded, from .