Premier Division
·
Full time
·Matchday 31
Waterford
vs
Dundalk
1 – 1 Full time
| 21′ | John Mahon | ||
| 31′ | Keith Buckley | ||
| 37′ | H. Cann | ||
| 56′ | shane tracey | ||
| 60′ | shane traceyBobby Burns | ||
| 61′ | John Ross WilsonHarvey Warren | ||
| 61′ | leonardo gaxhaDeclan McDaid | ||
| 61′ | Keith BuckleyAodh Dervin | ||
| 65′ | Harvey Warren | ||
| 72′ | Egor VasseninHarry Groome | ||
| 78′ | Evan McLaughlin | ||
| 90′ | ronan teahan |
Waterford
45%
Draw
25%
Dundalk
30%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 40 | Possession % | 60 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 7 |
| 138 | Accurate passes | 276 |
Waterford vs Dundalk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Waterford vs Dundalk
| Probability | Waterford | Draw | Dundalk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.9% | 21.0% | 16.2% |
| Market | 39.7% | 26.0% | 34.3% |
| Final | 45.5% | 24.8% | 29.7% |
| Edge | +23.2% | -5.1% | -18.1% |
Why Waterford
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Waterford below the model: +23.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
65%
No goals
4%
Waterford and Dundalk expected goals
Waterford
2.25
Dundalk
1.08
Total expected goals: 3.33
Waterford and Dundalk attack and defence ratings
Waterford
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Dundalk
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
1.27 +27%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Waterford vs Dundalk: result vs prediction
Waterford 1 – 1 Dundalk
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Waterford vs Dundalk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waterford | 45.5% | 2.20 | +23.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Waterford win | 41.1% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waterford | 45.5% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Dundalk | 29.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Waterford win | 41.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 37.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 9.1% |
Waterford vs Dundalk stats
Waterford and Dundalk recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Waterford and Dundalk going into this match
Waterford record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
Dundalk record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Waterford vs Dundalk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Waterford wins
2Draws
2Dundalk wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Dundalk | Waterford | Premier Division | 2-3 |
| 2026-05-04 | Waterford | Dundalk | Premier Division | 3-3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Dundalk | Waterford | Premier Division | 5-0 |
| 2024-09-13 | Waterford | Dundalk | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-28 | Dundalk | Waterford | Premier Division | 0-2 |
| 2024-05-10 | Waterford | Dundalk | Premier Division | 4-1 |
| 2024-03-15 | Dundalk | Waterford | Premier Division | 0-0 |
| 2022-09-16 | Waterford | Dundalk | FAI Cup | 3-2 |
| 2022-01-29 | Waterford | Dundalk | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-29 | Dundalk | Waterford | Premier Division | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Waterford vs Dundalk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 25.8%, away 35.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.58 | 2.75 |
| 888Sport | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.55 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.58 | 2.74 |
| Pinnacle | 2.37 | 3.82 | 2.82 |
| SBO | 2.22 | 3.32 | 2.51 |
| Superbet | 2.42 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.35 ▼ -0.23
X
3.58 ▼ -0.08
2
2.72 ▲ +0.29
14 snapshots recorded, from .