Garuda Lions
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Premier Division · Full time ·Matchday 30

Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.

0 – 4 Full time

21′Aidan Keena
29′Anthony Olusanya
37′Aidan Keena
45′Luke MulliganJohn Ross Wilson
45′Harry Groomeshane tracey
55′Cian dillonleonardo gaxha
58′Barry BaggleyDarragh Nugent
58′Zachary ElbouzediJames Brown
69′leonardo gaxha
69′Aodh DervinHarvey Warren
69′Aidan KeenaRyan Edmondson
75′Ryan Sheridan
76′Trevor ClarkeDeclan McDaid
79′Ryan SheridanChristopher Forrester
79′Anthony OlusanyaRomal Palmer
82′Ryan Edmondson
83′Harvey Warren

Oriel Park, Dundalk

Dundalk 28%
Draw 26%
St Patrick's Athl. 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 16
0 Shots on target 8
52 Possession % 48
3 Corners 3
9 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 3
4 Saves 0
293 Accurate passes 262

Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDundalkDrawSt Patrick's Athl.
Model27.8%29.1%43.1%
Market28.2%25.1%46.7%
Final28.1%26.1%45.8%
Edge-0.4%+4.0%-3.7%

Confidence: Low

Why St Patrick's Athl.

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 1.09.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dundalk ↓ / St Patrick's A → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 10% 8% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected goals

Dundalk 1.09
St Patrick's Athl. 1.41

Total expected goals: 2.49

Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. attack and defence ratings

Dundalk

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.19 +19%

St Patrick's Athl.

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.69 -31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.: result vs prediction

Dundalk 0 – 4 St Patrick's Athl.

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Premier Division

Before and after this match

Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 St Patrick's Athl. 45.8% 2.18 -3.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.6% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.3% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.9% 1.76 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dundalk28.1%
Draw26.1%
St Patrick's Athl.45.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.4%
Under 2.554.6%
Both teams to scoreYes51.3%
No48.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.2%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)71.9%
Handicap -1St Patrick's Athl. win21.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss56.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.9%
0-110.4%
0-09.5%

Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. stats

Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. recent form

newest first
Dundalk DWLLDD
St Patrick's Athl. WLWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dundalk record

  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

St Patrick's Athl. record

  • They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Dundalk wins 3Draws 5St Patrick's Athl. wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-24St Patrick's Athl.DundalkPremier Division1-1
2026-04-06DundalkSt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division2-0
2026-02-27St Patrick's Athl.DundalkPremier Division4-0
2024-09-05DundalkSt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division1-2
2024-06-03St Patrick's Athl.DundalkPremier Division2-3
2024-04-12DundalkSt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division0-0
2024-03-08St Patrick's Athl.DundalkPremier Division1-0
2023-09-22St Patrick's Athl.DundalkPremier Division3-1
2023-06-26DundalkSt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division1-1
2023-05-26St Patrick's Athl.DundalkPremier Division2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.0%, draw 25.7%, away 46.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.34 3.72 1.99
Bet365 3.30 3.60 1.95
BetVictor 3.30 3.60 1.95
Betano 3.25 3.70 2.00
Betfair 3.30 3.70 1.95
Dafabet 3.20 3.50 2.07
Marathonbet 3.34 3.72 1.97
Pinnacle 3.46 3.90 2.02
SBO 3.00 3.28 2.12
Unibet 3.20 3.45 2.14
William Hill 3.25 3.60 2.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.30 ▲ +0.10
X 3.70 ▲ +0.20
2 1.99 ▼ -0.10

14 snapshots recorded, from .