Premier Division
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Waterford
vs
Derry City
2 – 2 Full time
| 9′ | Adam O'Reilly | ||
| 11′ | Adam O'Reilly | ||
| 45′ | James Clarke | ||
| 45′ | Evan McLaughlin | ||
| 51′ | Michael Duffy | ||
| 57′ | Padraig Amond | ||
| 64′ | Liam Boyce | ||
| 64′ | Evan McLaughlinSam Glenfield | ||
| 64′ | Noah MaweneLuke Heeney | ||
| 64′ | C.NoonanDean Mcmenamy | ||
| 73′ | Sam Glenfield | ||
| 73′ | James ClarkeEllis Chapman | ||
| 74′ | Darragh Burns | ||
| 76′ | Darragh BurnsKévin Santos | ||
| 88′ | Mark Gerard Connolly | ||
| 88′ | Ciaran Grogan |
Waterford
42%
Draw
25%
Derry City
33%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 39 | Possession % | 61 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 129 | Accurate passes | 292 |
Waterford vs Derry City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Waterford vs Derry City
| Probability | Waterford | Draw | Derry City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.4% | 21.4% | 16.2% |
| Market | 34.9% | 26.5% | 38.6% |
| Final | 41.8% | 25.2% | 33.0% |
| Edge | +27.4% | -5.0% | -22.4% |
Why Waterford
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Waterford below the model: +27.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Waterford and Derry City expected goals
Waterford
2.19
Derry City
1.05
Total expected goals: 3.24
Waterford and Derry City attack and defence ratings
Waterford
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Derry City
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.27 +27%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Waterford vs Derry City: result vs prediction
Waterford 2 – 2 Derry City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Waterford vs Derry City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waterford | 41.8% | 2.39 | +27.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Waterford win | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waterford | 41.8% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Derry City | 33.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Waterford win | 40.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 37.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
Waterford vs Derry City stats
Waterford and Derry City recent form
| Waterford |
DWDWWD |
| Derry City |
WDLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Waterford and Derry City going into this match
Waterford record
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
Derry City record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Waterford vs Derry City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Waterford wins
1Draws
6Derry City wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Derry City | Waterford | Premier Division | 2-4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Waterford | Derry City | Premier Division | 2-2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Derry City | Waterford | Premier Division | 4-2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Waterford | Derry City | Premier Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-07-04 | Derry City | Waterford | Premier Division | 7-2 |
| 2025-04-25 | Waterford | Derry City | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-28 | Derry City | Waterford | Premier Division | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-23 | Waterford | Derry City | Premier Division | 0-1 |
| 2024-06-03 | Derry City | Waterford | Premier Division | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-26 | Waterford | Derry City | Premier Division | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Waterford vs Derry City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 26.4%, away 38.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.54 | 2.41 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.54 | 2.41 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.79 | 2.47 |
| SBO | 2.63 | 3.26 | 2.36 |
| Unibet | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.65 ▼ -0.50
X
3.50 —
2
2.40 ▲ +0.28
14 snapshots recorded, from .