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Premier Division · Full time ·Matchday 31

Shelbourne vs Derry City

0 – 1 Full time

27′Odhran Casey
50′Jonathan Lunney
57′Alistair CooteSean Moore
57′Ademipo OdubekoSean Boyd
58′Jonathan LunneyJack Henry-Francis
59′Darragh BurnsJames Clarke
59′Tyler·SmithLiam Boyce
65′Adam O'Reilly
69′Liam Boyce
72′Ellis ChapmanKévin Santos
76′Evan CaffreyRodrigo Costa Freitas
83′nick twisk
83′Milan Bernhard MbengSean Gannon
90′Michael Duffy

Tolka Park, Dublin

Shelbourne 42%
Draw 26%
Derry City 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 18
2 Shots on target 6
54 Possession % 46
6 Corners 5
11 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 1
5 Saves 2
428 Accurate passes 367

Shelbourne vs Derry City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Shelbourne vs Derry City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityShelbourneDrawDerry City
Model45.6%23.7%30.7%
Market40.6%27.3%32.1%
Final41.9%26.4%31.8%
Edge+4.9%-3.6%-1.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Shelbourne

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.57.
  • The market prices Shelbourne below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Shelbourne ↓ / Derry City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Shelbourne and Derry City expected goals

Shelbourne 1.94
Derry City 1.57

Total expected goals: 3.51

Shelbourne and Derry City attack and defence ratings

Shelbourne

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Derry City

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 1.39 +39%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Shelbourne vs Derry City: result vs prediction

Shelbourne 0 – 1 Derry City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Premier Division

Before and after this match

Shelbourne vs Derry City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Shelbourne 41.9% 2.39 +4.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.1% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.8% 1.45 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.6% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.4% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Shelbourne41.9%
Draw26.4%
Derry City31.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.1%
Under 2.531.9%
Both teams to scoreYes68.8%
No31.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.2%
12 (either side)73.6%
X2 (draw or away)58.1%
Handicap -1Shelbourne win26.1%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss54.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.0%
2-18.8%
1-27.2%

Shelbourne vs Derry City stats

Shelbourne and Derry City recent form

newest first
Shelbourne DDDLLL
Derry City DLWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Shelbourne and Derry City going into this match

league record before kick-off

Shelbourne record

  • They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Derry City record

  • They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Shelbourne vs Derry City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Shelbourne wins 3Draws 4Derry City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-25Derry CityShelbournePremier Division0-0
2026-04-17ShelbourneDerry CityPremier Division1-2
2026-03-13Derry CityShelbournePremier Division1-2
2025-09-19Derry CityShelbournePremier Division1-1
2025-06-20ShelbourneDerry CityPremier Division0-1
2025-05-02Derry CityShelbournePremier Division2-0
2025-02-14ShelbourneDerry CityPremier Division3-1
2024-11-01Derry CityShelbournePremier Division0-1
2024-09-14Derry CityShelbourneFAI Cup2-0
2024-08-05ShelbourneDerry CityPremier Division0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Shelbourne vs Derry City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 28.0%, away 31.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.32 3.35 2.94
1xBet 2.31 3.44 2.91
888Sport 2.30 3.30 2.80
Bet365 2.30 3.25 3.00
BetVictor 2.25 3.40 2.80
Betano 2.32 3.25 2.92
Betfair 2.30 3.40 2.90
Dafabet 2.31 3.30 3.00
Marathonbet 2.29 3.44 2.90
Pinnacle 2.35 3.60 2.99
SBO 2.24 3.01 2.70
Superbet 2.30 3.25 2.95
Unibet 2.43 3.30 2.80
William Hill 2.25 3.30 2.88

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.29 ▼ -0.04
X 3.42 ▲ +0.06
2 2.91 ▲ +0.01

14 snapshots recorded, from .