Derry City
vs
Shamrock Rovers
3 – 3 Full time
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers
| Probability | Derry City | Draw | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.9% | 23.8% | 37.3% |
| Market | 35.6% | 28.5% | 36.0% |
| Final | 36.4% | 27.3% | 36.3% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -4.7% | +1.4% |
Why Derry City
- The market prices Derry City below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers attack and defence ratings
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers: result vs prediction
Derry City 3 – 3 Shamrock Rovers
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derry City | 36.4% | 2.75 | +3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derry City | 36.4% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Shamrock Rovers | 36.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% |
| No | 29.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Derry City win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 58.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers stats
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers recent form
| Derry City |
LWDLLL |
| Shamrock Rovers |
LDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers going into this match
Derry City record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Shamrock Rovers record
- They have won 16 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Shamrock Rovers | Derry City | Premier Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Derry City | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Shamrock Rovers | Derry City | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Derry City | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-03 | Shamrock Rovers | Derry City | Premier Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-23 | Derry City | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-28 | Shamrock Rovers | Derry City | Premier Division | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 28.5%, away 36.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.25 | 2.59 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.64 | 3.25 | 2.59 |
| Pinnacle | 2.67 | 3.38 | 2.60 |
| SBO | 2.48 | 2.99 | 2.43 |
| Unibet | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .