Dukagjini
vs
Llapi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dukagjini
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.79.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Dukagjini is the favourite, not a value bet.
Dukagjini vs Llapi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dukagjini vs Llapi
| Probability | Dukagjini | Draw | Llapi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.0% | 31.0% | 21.0% |
| Market | 62.5% | 22.1% | 15.4% |
| Final | 58.9% | 24.3% | 16.8% |
| Edge | -3.6% | +2.2% | +1.4% |
Why Dukagjini
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.7% per unit staked (our 58.9% × 1.50 − 1).
Dukagjini vs Llapi match preview
Dukagjini enters this match with a 59% probability of winning, while Llapi stands at 17%. The expected goals for Dukagjini are 1.32, compared to Llapi's 0.79, indicating a stronger attacking potential for the home side. Recent form shows Dukagjini with mixed results, including two draws and a win in their last five matches, while Llapi has struggled, recording six consecutive games without a victory.
In their last ten encounters, Dukagjini has secured five wins against Llapi's two, suggesting a favorable historical context for the home team. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 15% probability. Additionally, there is a 41% chance that both teams will score, while the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 35%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dukagjini and Llapi expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.11
Dukagjini and Llapi attack and defence ratings
Dukagjini
Llapi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dukagjini vs Llapi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dukagjini | 58.9% | 1.70 | -3.6% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dukagjini | 58.9% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Llapi | 16.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.2% |
| No | 58.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dukagjini win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.8% |
| 1-1 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 13.4% |
Dukagjini vs Llapi stats
Dukagjini and Llapi recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dukagjini and Llapi season so far
Dukagjini record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Llapi record
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 12 matches.
Dukagjini vs Llapi head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Llapi | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Llapi | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Dukagjini | Llapi | Kosovo Superliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Llapi | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Dukagjini | Llapi | Kosovo Superliga | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Llapi | Dukagjini | Superliga | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Dukagjini | Llapi | Superliga | 3-1 |
| 2024-12-20 | Llapi | Dukagjini | Superliga | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | Dukagjini | Llapi | Superliga | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-14 | Dukagjini | Llapi | Superliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dukagjini vs Llapi odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.5%, draw 22.1%, away 15.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 4.05 | 6.15 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 3.40 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 3.85 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.05 | 5.85 |