Garuda Lions
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A Lyga · Full time ·Matchday 25

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris

3 – 2 Full time

5′M. Vareika
8′L. Krekovic
20′L. Krekovic
45′M. Vareika
46′M. BurbaV. Slivka
46′G. DebeljuhRenan Oliveira
51′S. Bilenkyi
55′A. KalikF. Ourega
55′L. KrekovicLeo Ribeiro
60′I. LytvynenkoM. Capan
63′N. Mihajlovic
69′K. UpstasD. Franke
69′N. MihajlovicB. Teixeira
77′R. Lekiatas
79′P. Bosancic
81′Y. KarashimaF. Cernych
82′M. Konatar
90′M. VareikaG. Turda

LFF stadionas, VilniusReferee: R. Valikonis

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 30%
Draw 27%
Kauno Žalgiris 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFK Zalgiris VilniusDrawKauno Žalgiris
Model23.5%24.9%51.5%
Market31.6%27.5%41.0%
Final29.5%26.8%43.6%
Edge-8.0%-2.5%+10.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Kauno Žalgiris

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kauno Žalgiris below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FK Zalgiris Vi ↓ / Kauno Žalgiris → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 8% 1 12% 10% 6% 2 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.19
Kauno Žalgiris 1.84

Total expected goals: 3.03

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris attack and defence ratings

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Kauno Žalgiris

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris: result vs prediction

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3 – 2 Kauno Žalgiris

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kauno Žalgiris 43.6% 2.29 +10.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.4% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.6% 1.68 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.2% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.5% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FK Zalgiris Vilnius29.5%
Draw26.8%
Kauno Žalgiris43.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%
Both teams to scoreYes59.6%
No40.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.4%
12 (either side)73.2%
X2 (draw or away)70.5%
Handicap -1Kauno Žalgiris win29.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss48.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
1-29.7%
0-28.2%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris recent form

newest first
FK Zalgiris Vilnius DWLWLL
Kauno Žalgiris WWWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Zalgiris Vilnius record

  • They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).

Kauno Žalgiris record

  • They have won 15 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins 1Draws 5Kauno Žalgiris wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-31Kauno ŽalgirisFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga0-1
2026-04-05FK Zalgiris VilniusKauno ŽalgirisA Lyga0-3
2025-10-22Kauno ŽalgirisFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga1-2
2025-08-04FK Zalgiris VilniusKauno ŽalgirisA Lyga1-2
2025-05-20FK Zalgiris VilniusKauno ŽalgirisCup2-4
2025-05-17Kauno ŽalgirisFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga3-0
2025-04-06FK Zalgiris VilniusKauno ŽalgirisA Lyga0-0
2024-09-22FK Zalgiris VilniusKauno ŽalgirisA Lyga5-0
2024-07-05Kauno ŽalgirisFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga1-0
2024-05-19FK Zalgiris VilniusKauno ŽalgirisA Lyga1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.6%, draw 27.5%, away 41.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.83 3.25 2.23
Bet365 2.75 3.40 2.15
BetVictor 2.63 3.00 2.05
Betano 2.87 3.30 2.18
Betfair 2.88 3.40 2.15
Marathonbet 2.76 3.25 2.21
Pinnacle 2.83 3.38 2.33
SBO 2.90 3.08 2.08
William Hill 2.88 3.10 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.83 ▼ -0.06
X 3.25 ▼ -0.10
2 2.18 ▼ -0.08

3 snapshots recorded, from .