Montenegro First League
·
Full time
·Matchday 4
Otrant-Olympic
vs
Dečić
0 – 3 Full time
Otrant-Olympic
42%
Draw
30%
Dečić
28%
Otrant-Olympic vs Dečić overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Otrant-Olympic vs Dečić
| Probability | Otrant-Olympic | Draw | Dečić |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 31.3% | 21.0% |
| Market | 40.3% | 29.9% | 29.8% |
| Final | 42.1% | 30.3% | 27.6% |
| Edge | +7.4% | +1.4% | -8.8% |
Why Otrant-Olympic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.78.
- The market prices Otrant-Olympic below the model: +7.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
63%
3+ goals
34%
No goals
14%
Otrant-Olympic and Dečić expected goals
Otrant-Olympic
1.30
Dečić
0.78
Total expected goals: 2.08
Otrant-Olympic and Dečić attack and defence ratings
Otrant-Olympic
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
0.94 -6%
Dečić
Attack
0.84 -16%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Otrant-Olympic vs Dečić: result vs prediction
Otrant-Olympic 0 – 3 Dečić
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Otrant-Olympic vs Dečić markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Otrant-Olympic | 42.1% | 2.37 | +7.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Otrant-Olympic | 42.1% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Dečić | 27.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.5% |
| No | 59.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Otrant-Olympic win | 22.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 13.8% |
Otrant-Olympic vs Dečić stats
Otrant-Olympic and Dečić recent form
| Otrant-Olympic |
WDL |
| Dečić |
WWDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
Otrant-Olympic and Dečić going into this match
Otrant-Olympic record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dečić record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Otrant-Olympic vs Dečić head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Otrant-Olympic vs Dečić odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 29.9%, away 29.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.08 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.34 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.08 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 2.91 | 3.09 |
| Superbet | 2.30 | 2.92 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.75 | 3.00 |