Garuda Lions
Today
Northern Ireland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 3

Crusaders FC vs Portadown

3 – 2 Full time

Seaview, BelfastReferee: E. Boyce

Crusaders FC 42%
Draw 27%
Portadown 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Crusaders FC vs Portadown overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Crusaders FC vs Portadown

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCrusaders FCDrawPortadown
Model47.7%26.2%26.1%
Market39.6%27.6%32.8%
Final41.6%27.3%31.1%
Edge+8.1%-1.4%-6.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Crusaders FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.21.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Crusaders FC below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Crusaders FC ↓ / Portadown → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 12% 7% 2 8% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 7%

Crusaders FC and Portadown expected goals

Crusaders FC 1.70
Portadown 1.21

Total expected goals: 2.91

Crusaders FC and Portadown attack and defence ratings

Crusaders FC

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Portadown

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Crusaders FC vs Portadown: result vs prediction

Crusaders FC 3 – 2 Portadown

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Northern Ireland Premiership

Before and after this match

Crusaders FC vs Portadown markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Crusaders FC 41.6% 2.40 +8.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.6% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.5% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.7% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.3% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Crusaders FC41.6%
Draw27.3%
Portadown31.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%
Both teams to scoreYes58.5%
No41.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.9%
12 (either side)72.7%
X2 (draw or away)58.4%
Handicap -1Crusaders FC win26.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss52.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.3%
2-19.5%
1-08.1%

Crusaders FC vs Portadown stats

Crusaders FC and Portadown recent form

newest first
Crusaders FC WLLWWW
Portadown LLWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Crusaders FC and Portadown going into this match

league record before kick-off

Crusaders FC record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Portadown record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Crusaders FC vs Portadown head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

1Crusaders FC wins 1Draws 2Portadown wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11Crusaders FCPortadownNorthern Ireland Premiership4-0
2026-03-21PortadownCrusaders FCNorthern Ireland Premiership0-0
2025-12-06Crusaders FCPortadownNorthern Ireland Premiership0-4
2025-08-29PortadownCrusaders FCNorthern Ireland Premiership2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Crusaders FC vs Portadown odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.7%, draw 27.7%, away 32.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.25 3.35 2.80
1xBet 2.29 3.30 2.78
888Sport 2.30 3.20 2.80
Bet365 2.25 3.30 2.75
BetVictor 2.10 2.90 2.60
Betano 2.32 3.25 2.85
Betfair 2.30 3.30 2.70
Dafabet 2.37 3.35 2.85
Marathonbet 2.27 3.30 2.73
Pinnacle 2.38 3.54 2.88
Superbet 2.32 3.30 2.82
Unibet 2.38 3.10 2.70
William Hill 2.30 3.25 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 —
X 3.30 —
2 2.78 ▼ -0.02

2 snapshots recorded, from .