Larne
vs
Dungannon Swifts
Garuda Lions Prediction: Larne
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Larne vs Dungannon Swifts
| Probability | Larne | Draw | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.5% | 22.8% | 14.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 62.5% | 22.8% | 14.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Larne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts match preview
Larne enters the match against Dungannon Swifts with a strong probability of winning at 63%, reflecting their recent form of four wins followed by one loss. The expected goals for Larne stand at 2.00, while Dungannon Swifts is projected to score 0.88. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11% chance, indicating a solid expectation for Larne to secure a clean sheet.
In their recent encounters, Larne has dominated with three wins in the last four meetings against Dungannon Swifts, who have only one victory in that span. The probabilities suggest a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for an engaging match despite Dungannon Swifts' lower winning probability of 15%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Larne and Dungannon Swifts expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Larne and Dungannon Swifts attack and defence ratings
Larne
Dungannon Swifts
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.4% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 62.5% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Dungannon Swifts | 14.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.4% |
| No | 48.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win | 41.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 34.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.3% |
| 1-1 | 10.9% | |
| 1-0 | 10.3% |
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts stats
Larne and Dungannon Swifts recent form
| Larne |
WWWWWL |
| Dungannon Swifts |
LDLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Larne and Dungannon Swifts season so far
Larne record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Dungannon Swifts record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 8-0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Dungannon Swifts | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Dungannon Swifts | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.