Mamelodi Sundowns
vs
Durban City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mamelodi Sundowns
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.99.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City
| Probability | Mamelodi Sundowns | Draw | Durban City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.0% | 27.1% | 21.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.0% | 27.1% | 21.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mamelodi Sundowns
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.99.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City match preview
Mamelodi Sundowns are set to face Durban City in the Premier Soccer League, with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, Mamelodi Sundowns have a 51% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 27% and Durban City at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Sundowns, with an expected goals tally of 1.63 for Sundowns compared to 0.99 for Durban City.
In terms of recent form, Mamelodi Sundowns have recorded two wins, two draws, and one win in their last five matches, while Durban City has three wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. Historically, Mamelodi Sundowns have dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Durban City. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City attack and defence ratings
Mamelodi Sundowns
Durban City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 51.0% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Durban City | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mamelodi Sundowns win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City stats
Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City recent form
| Mamelodi Sundowns |
DDWDWW |
| Durban City |
WWLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City season so far
Mamelodi Sundowns record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Durban City record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Durban City | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Durban City | Premier Soccer League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.