Gwangju FC
vs
Incheon United
0 – 1 Full time
Gwangju FC vs Incheon United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gwangju FC vs Incheon United
| Probability | Gwangju FC | Draw | Incheon United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.7% | 23.9% | 65.4% |
| Market | 20.1% | 27.2% | 52.8% |
| Final | 17.7% | 26.3% | 55.9% |
| Edge | -9.4% | -3.3% | +12.7% |
Why Incheon United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Incheon United below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gwangju FC and Incheon United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Gwangju FC and Incheon United attack and defence ratings
Gwangju FC
Incheon United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gwangju FC vs Incheon United: result vs prediction
Gwangju FC 0 – 1 Incheon United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gwangju FC vs Incheon United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Incheon United | 55.9% | 1.79 | +12.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.3% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Incheon United win | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gwangju FC | 17.7% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Incheon United | 55.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.2% |
| No | 61.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Incheon United win | 39.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 34.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.6% |
| 0-2 | 14.8% | |
| 1-1 | 10.8% |
Gwangju FC vs Incheon United stats
Gwangju FC and Incheon United recent form
| Gwangju FC |
LDLLDD |
| Incheon United |
DDDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gwangju FC and Incheon United going into this match
Gwangju FC record
- They have won 1 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Incheon United record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 51% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gwangju FC vs Incheon United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Incheon United | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 4-0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gwangju FC | Incheon United | K League 1 | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gwangju FC vs Incheon United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.1%, draw 27.2%, away 52.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.71 | 3.48 | 1.76 |
| 888Sport | 4.40 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.30 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 4.60 | 3.55 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.70 | 3.55 | 1.83 |
| Marathonbet | 4.80 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Pinnacle | 4.72 | 3.66 | 1.82 |
| SBO | 4.14 | 3.18 | 1.82 |
| Superbet | 4.45 | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| Unibet | 4.35 | 3.15 | 1.75 |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .