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K League 1 · Full time ·Matchday 28

Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC

0 – 1 Full time

58′Jeong WoonYu In-Soo
58′Shin Sang-EunChoi Byung-wook
59′Shin Chang-MooJoung Ji-hun
63′Choi Byung-wook
73′Choi Kyoung-RokJu Se-Jong
73′Ha Seung-UnH. Fridjonsson
79′Emerson Ramon
79′Emerson NeguebaPark Chang-Jun
84′Yu Je-ho
84′Dong-jun Kim
86′Park Min-jaeKim Jae-Woo
86′Matheus AiasKim Shin-Jin
88′Kwon Sung-YunPark Won-Jae
88′Gwangju FCE. Saitoski

Gwangju Football Stadium, GwangjuReferee: Yong-jun Shin, South Korea

Gwangju FC 21%
Draw 26%
Jeju United FC 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

6 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 3
49 Possession % 51
4 Corners 5

Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGwangju FCDrawJeju United FC
Model14.8%22.9%62.3%
Market23.4%27.5%49.2%
Final21.2%26.3%52.4%
Edge-8.5%-4.6%+13.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Jeju United FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Jeju United FC below the model: +13.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gwangju FC ↓ / Jeju United FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 10% 11% 7% 6% 1 11% 10% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC expected goals

Gwangju FC 0.88
Jeju United FC 1.99

Total expected goals: 2.87

Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC attack and defence ratings

Gwangju FC

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.44 +44%

Jeju United FC

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC: result vs prediction

Gwangju FC 0 – 1 Jeju United FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

K League 1

Before and after this match

Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Jeju United FC 52.4% 1.91 +13.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.7% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.5% 1.94 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.8% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Jeju United FC win 38.8% 2.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gwangju FC21.2%
Draw26.3%
Jeju United FC52.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%
Both teams to scoreYes51.5%
No48.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.6%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)78.8%
Handicap -1Jeju United FC win38.8%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss37.7%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.2%
1-110.9%
0-110.3%

Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC stats

Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC recent form

newest first
Gwangju FC DLDLLD
Jeju United FC DWLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Gwangju FC record

  • They have won 1 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Jeju United FC record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Gwangju FC wins 2Draws 2Jeju United FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-26Gwangju FCJeju United FCK League 11-2
2026-03-01Jeju United FCGwangju FCK League 10-0
2025-11-02Gwangju FCJeju United FCK League 12-0
2025-08-30Jeju United FCGwangju FCK League 10-1
2025-06-18Jeju United FCGwangju FCK League 10-1
2025-04-06Gwangju FCJeju United FCK League 11-0
2024-11-10Jeju United FCGwangju FCK League 10-0
2024-09-22Gwangju FCJeju United FCK League 10-2
2024-06-30Gwangju FCJeju United FCK League 12-1
2024-05-01Jeju United FCGwangju FCK League 11-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.4%, draw 27.5%, away 49.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 4.00 3.40 1.90
1xBet 4.03 3.50 1.88
888Sport 3.90 3.30 1.91
Bet365 4.00 3.40 1.83
BetVictor 4.00 3.50 1.85
Betano 3.95 3.40 1.91
Betfair 3.90 3.50 1.90
Dafabet 4.20 3.55 1.94
Marathonbet 4.05 3.50 1.86
Pinnacle 4.27 3.65 1.90
SBO 3.67 3.17 1.85
Superbet 4.00 3.40 1.90
Unibet 3.50 3.15 1.92
William Hill 3.90 3.30 1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.00 ▼ -0.09
X 3.40 ▼ -0.02
2 1.90 ▲ +0.03

5 snapshots recorded, from .