Kitara
vs
URA
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kitara
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.20.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Kitara is the favourite, not a value bet.
Kitara vs URA overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kitara vs URA
| Probability | Kitara | Draw | URA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.0% | 27.9% | 29.1% |
| Market | 44.4% | 31.0% | 24.6% |
| Final | 44.0% | 30.2% | 25.7% |
| Edge | -0.3% | -0.8% | +1.1% |
Why Kitara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.20.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (our 44.0% × 2.05 − 1).
Kitara vs URA match preview
Kitara hosts URA in the Uganda Premier League, with Kitara holding a 44% probability of winning compared to URA's 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Kitara, with an expected goals tally of 1.50 for Kitara and 1.20 for URA. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, as indicated by a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood of both teams scoring.
In terms of recent form, Kitara has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while URA has seen three wins but also faced two losses in their recent outings. The head-to-head record over the last eight encounters shows an even split, with each team claiming three victories and two matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kitara and URA expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Kitara and URA attack and defence ratings
Kitara
URA
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kitara vs URA markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 44.0% | 2.27 | -0.3% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 44.0% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| URA | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
Kitara vs URA stats
Kitara and URA recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kitara and URA season so far
Kitara record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
URA record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Kitara vs URA head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | Kitara | URA | Uganda Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-04 | URA | Kitara | Uganda Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Kitara | URA | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-01 | URA | Kitara | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-06-01 | URA | Kitara | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
| 2024-03-14 | Kitara | URA | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2023-11-10 | URA | Kitara | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2021-02-24 | Kitara | URA | Premier League | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kitara vs URA odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 31.0%, away 24.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 2.89 | 3.66 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 2.90 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 2.89 | 3.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 2.84 | 3.59 |