Police
vs
Kitara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Police
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.21.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Police vs Kitara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Police vs Kitara
| Probability | Police | Draw | Kitara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 27.8% | 29.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.2% | 27.8% | 29.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Police
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.21.
Police vs Kitara match preview
In the upcoming Uganda Premier League match, Police faces Kitara with a kickoff scheduled for November 3, 2026. According to our model, Police holds a 43% probability of winning, while Kitara has a 29% chance, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Police, with a 9% likelihood. Expected goals for Police are 1.51, compared to Kitara's 1.21.
Recent form indicates that Police has recorded a win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Kitara has achieved two wins, a draw, and two losses. In their last two encounters, Police has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to Kitara. The model predicts a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Police and Kitara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Police and Kitara attack and defence ratings
Police
Kitara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Police vs Kitara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 43.2% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Kitara | 29.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% |
| No | 44.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-0 | 8.8% |
Police vs Kitara stats
Police and Kitara recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Police and Kitara season so far
Police record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Police vs Kitara head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Kitara | Police | Uganda Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-27 | Police | Kitara | Uganda Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.