Kataka
vs
Police
Garuda Lions Prediction: Police
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Kataka vs Police overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kataka vs Police
| Probability | Kataka | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.9% | 29.4% | 38.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.9% | 29.4% | 38.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Police
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Kataka vs Police match preview
Kataka faces Police in the Uganda Premier League with a kickoff scheduled for October 30, 2026. According to our model, Kataka has a 32% chance of winning, while Police is favored at 39%, with a 29% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Expected goals for Kataka stand at 1.18, while Police is slightly higher at 1.32.
In terms of recent form, Kataka has struggled, recording five consecutive losses followed by a draw, while Police has had a mixed run with two losses, a win, and two draws in their last five matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 46%, and both teams are projected to score with a probability of 52%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kataka and Police expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Kataka and Police attack and defence ratings
Kataka
Police
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kataka vs Police markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 38.6% | 2.59 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kataka | 31.9% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Police | 38.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 61.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
Kataka vs Police stats
Kataka and Police recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kataka and Police season so far
Kataka record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Police record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.