Lugazi
vs
SC Villa
Garuda Lions Prediction: SC Villa
0 – 1 Predicted score · 20% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.43.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Lugazi vs SC Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lugazi vs SC Villa
| Probability | Lugazi | Draw | SC Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8.8% | 26.1% | 65.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 8.8% | 26.1% | 65.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why SC Villa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.43.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Lugazi vs SC Villa match preview
Lugazi faces SC Villa in the Uganda Premier League with a significant disparity in form and performance metrics. Lugazi's recent results show two draws, a loss, and a win, while SC Villa boasts an impressive streak of six consecutive wins, including a draw. The model assigns a 9% probability for a Lugazi win, a 26% chance for a draw, and a 65% likelihood of an SC Villa victory, with the most likely scoreline being 0-1.
In terms of expected goals, Lugazi is projected to score 0.43, while SC Villa is expected to net 1.57. The probabilities indicate a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance for both teams to score. Historically, in their last two encounters, Lugazi has yet to secure a win against SC Villa, who has one victory and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lugazi and SC Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
Lugazi and SC Villa attack and defence ratings
Lugazi
SC Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lugazi vs SC Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Villa | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 91.2% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | SC Villa win | 36.7% | 2.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lugazi | 8.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| SC Villa | 65.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.5% |
| No | 71.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 91.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Villa win | 36.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.4% | |
| Loss | 34.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 20.3% |
| 0-2 | 16.7% | |
| 0-0 | 14.4% |
Lugazi vs SC Villa stats
Lugazi and SC Villa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lugazi and SC Villa season so far
Lugazi record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
SC Villa record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lugazi vs SC Villa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Lugazi | SC Villa | Uganda Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-31 | SC Villa | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.