KCCA
vs
Lugazi
Garuda Lions Prediction: KCCA
1 – 0 Predicted score · 26% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.30.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
KCCA vs Lugazi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KCCA vs Lugazi
| Probability | KCCA | Draw | Lugazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.4% | 32.3% | 8.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.4% | 32.3% | 8.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why KCCA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.30.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
KCCA vs Lugazi match preview
KCCA enters this match against Lugazi with a strong probability of winning at 59%, while Lugazi's chances stand at just 8%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of KCCA, with a 26% likelihood. KCCA's expected goals are 1.22, significantly higher than Lugazi's 0.30, indicating a pronounced offensive advantage for the home team.
In terms of recent form, KCCA has secured three wins in their last five matches, while Lugazi has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings. The head-to-head record also favors KCCA, with one win and one draw in their last two encounters against Lugazi, who has yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KCCA and Lugazi expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.52
KCCA and Lugazi attack and defence ratings
KCCA
Lugazi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
KCCA vs Lugazi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.7% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCCA | 59.4% |
| Draw | 32.3% | |
| Lugazi | 8.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 80.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 19.1% |
| No | 80.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | KCCA win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 31.1% | |
| Loss | 40.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 25.9% |
| 0-0 | 22.7% | |
| 2-0 | 16.2% |
KCCA vs Lugazi stats
KCCA and Lugazi recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
KCCA and Lugazi season so far
KCCA record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Lugazi record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
KCCA vs Lugazi head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Lugazi | KCCA | Uganda Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2025-10-16 | KCCA | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-14 | KCCA | Lugazi | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2024-11-30 | Lugazi | KCCA | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.