Lugazi
vs
Express
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 24% model probability
Lugazi vs Express overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lugazi vs Express
| Probability | Lugazi | Draw | Express |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 39.4% | 31.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 29.2% | 39.4% | 31.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Lugazi vs Express match preview
Lugazi will face Express in the Uganda Premier League on October 21, 2026. According to our model, Lugazi has a 27% chance of winning, while Express has a 33% chance, and the probability of a draw stands at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 25% probability. Expected goals for Lugazi are 0.67, and for Express, they are 0.78, indicating a tightly contested match.
In terms of recent form, Lugazi has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Express has two draws, one win, and three losses in the same period. The head-to-head record shows that in their last two encounters, there have been no wins for either team, with two draws. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lugazi and Express expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.49
Lugazi and Express attack and defence ratings
Lugazi
Express
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lugazi vs Express markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lugazi | 29.2% |
| Draw | 39.4% | |
| Express | 31.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 81.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.8% |
| No | 71.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 60.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Express win | 10.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 68.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 23.8% |
| 0-1 | 16.0% | |
| 1-0 | 15.1% |
Lugazi vs Express stats
Lugazi and Express recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lugazi and Express season so far
Lugazi record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Express record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Lugazi vs Express head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Express | Lugazi | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lugazi | Express | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-06 | Lugazi | Express | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-22 | Express | Lugazi | Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.