Vipers
vs
Police
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vipers
3 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Vipers vs Police overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vipers vs Police
| Probability | Vipers | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 89.0% | 8.9% | 2.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 89.0% | 8.9% | 2.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vipers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 0.40.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Vipers vs Police match preview
Vipers are heavily favored in their upcoming match against Police, with a probability of 89% for a victory, while Police stands at just 2%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 3-0, occurring 15% of the time, and suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 68%. Vipers' expected goals sit at 3.10, compared to Police's 0.40, indicating a significant disparity in attacking potential.
In terms of recent form, Vipers have recorded a sequence of results with three wins, two draws, and one loss, while Police has struggled, with two losses, one win, one draw, and one win in their last five matches. The head-to-head record shows Vipers with one win and one draw against Police in their last two encounters, further emphasizing Vipers' dominance in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vipers and Police expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Vipers and Police attack and defence ratings
Vipers
Police
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vipers vs Police markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vipers | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 97.8% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win | 72.7% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vipers | 89.0% |
| Draw | 8.9% | |
| Police | 2.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.5% |
| No | 68.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 97.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 91.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 11.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win | 72.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 11.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 15.1% |
| 2-0 | 14.7% | |
| 4-0 | 11.6% |
Vipers vs Police stats
Vipers and Police recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vipers and Police season so far
Police record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Vipers vs Police head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Police | Vipers | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Vipers | Police | Uganda Premier League | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.