BUL
vs
NEC
Garuda Lions Prediction: BUL
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
BUL vs NEC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: BUL vs NEC
| Probability | BUL | Draw | NEC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.2% | 33.9% | 29.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.2% | 33.9% | 29.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why BUL
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
BUL vs NEC match preview
BUL and NEC are set to face off in the Uganda Premier League on October 21, 2026. According to our model, BUL has a 36% probability of winning, while NEC stands at 30%, with a 34% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of BUL, occurring at a rate of 13%. The expected goals for BUL are 1.03, compared to NEC's 0.92, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
Both teams have shown strong recent form, with BUL recording four wins and a draw in their last six matches, while NEC has also been consistent with four wins and two draws. In their last six encounters, BUL has not secured a win, with NEC winning twice and four matches ending in draws. The probabilities suggest a closely contested match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
BUL and NEC expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.95
BUL and NEC attack and defence ratings
BUL
NEC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
BUL vs NEC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BUL | 36.2% | 2.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BUL | 36.2% |
| Draw | 33.9% | |
| NEC | 29.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.0% |
| No | 60.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | BUL win | 14.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 63.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.6% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 13.4% |
BUL vs NEC stats
BUL and NEC recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
BUL and NEC season so far
BUL record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
NEC record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
BUL vs NEC head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | BUL | NEC | Uganda Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | NEC | BUL | Uganda Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-07 | NEC | BUL | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-18 | BUL | NEC | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-24 | NEC | BUL | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-10 | BUL | NEC | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.