Kigezi HomeBoyz
vs
NEC
Garuda Lions Prediction: NEC
0 – 1 Predicted score · 20% model probability
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC
| Probability | Kigezi HomeBoyz | Draw | NEC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.8% | 35.2% | 47.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 17.8% | 35.2% | 47.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why NEC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC match preview
Kigezi HomeBoyz faces NEC in the Uganda Premier League with a kickoff scheduled for October 14, 2026. According to our model, Kigezi HomeBoyz has a 17% probability of winning, while NEC stands at 50%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 18% probability. Kigezi HomeBoyz has struggled recently, recording two losses and a draw in their last four matches, while NEC has shown more resilience with three wins in their last six outings.
The expected goals for Kigezi HomeBoyz is 0.61, compared to NEC's 1.22, indicating a significant difference in offensive output. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals are at 28%, and both teams to score is at 33%. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kigezi HomeBoyz and NEC expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.66
Kigezi HomeBoyz and NEC attack and defence ratings
Kigezi HomeBoyz
NEC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 17.8% |
| Draw | 35.2% | |
| NEC | 47.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.9% |
| No | 70.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.8% | |
| Loss | 52.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.3% |
| 0-1 | 19.6% | |
| 1-1 | 13.0% |
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC stats
Kigezi HomeBoyz and NEC recent form
| Kigezi HomeBoyz |
LLDL |
| NEC |
DWDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.