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Uganda Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 6

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC

0 – 2 Full time

40′A. Mugalu
67′M. Oshaba

Rwamwanja stadium

Kigezi HomeBoyz 17%
Draw 35%
NEC 48%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKigezi HomeBoyzDrawNEC
Model17.5%34.9%47.6%
Market———
Final17.5%34.9%47.6%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why NEC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.10 vs 0.56.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kigezi HomeBoy ↓ / NEC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 20% 20% 12% 1 13% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 80%
2+ goals 51%
3+ goals 23%
No goals 20%

Kigezi HomeBoyz and NEC expected goals

Kigezi HomeBoyz 0.56
NEC 1.10

Total expected goals: 1.66

Kigezi HomeBoyz and NEC attack and defence ratings

Kigezi HomeBoyz

Attack 0.65 -35%
Defence 1.20 +20%

NEC

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC: result vs prediction

Kigezi HomeBoyz 0 – 2 NEC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Uganda Premier League

Before and after this match

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 NEC 47.6% 2.10 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 76.7% 1.30 — —
Both teams to score No 70.1% 1.43 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 82.5% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.4% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kigezi HomeBoyz17.5%
Draw34.9%
NEC47.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.523.3%
Under 2.576.7%
Both teams to scoreYes29.9%
No70.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.4%
12 (either side)65.1%
X2 (draw or away)82.5%
Handicap -1NEC win20.7%
Push (exactly one goal)26.9%
Loss52.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-020.1%
0-119.7%
1-112.9%

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC stats

Kigezi HomeBoyz and NEC recent form

newest first
Kigezi HomeBoyz LLDL
NEC DWDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Kigezi HomeBoyz and NEC going into this match

league record before kick-off

NEC record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Kigezi HomeBoyz vs NEC odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.