Uganda Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
NEC
vs
Express
0 – 0 Full time
NEC
61%
Draw
26%
Express
13%
NEC vs Express overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NEC vs Express
| Probability | NEC | Draw | Express |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.2% | 26.1% | 11.7% |
| Market | 61.0% | 25.4% | 13.6% |
| Final | 61.3% | 25.6% | 13.1% |
| Edge | +1.2% | +0.7% | -1.9% |
Why NEC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
66%
3+ goals
38%
No goals
12%
NEC and Express expected goals
NEC
1.62
Express
0.58
Total expected goals: 2.20
NEC and Express attack and defence ratings
NEC
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
0.75 -25%
Express
Attack
0.93 -7%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
NEC vs Express: result vs prediction
NEC 0 – 0 Express
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
NEC vs Express markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 61.3% | 1.63 | +1.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.3% | 2.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC | 61.3% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Express | 13.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.2% |
| No | 63.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC win | 34.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.8% | |
| Loss | 38.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.9% |
| 2-0 | 14.7% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
NEC vs Express stats
NEC vs Express head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
2NEC wins
2Draws
2Express wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Express | NEC | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-31 | NEC | Express | Uganda Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-27 | NEC | Express | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-03 | Express | NEC | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-13 | Express | NEC | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-21 | NEC | Express | Premier League | 2-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NEC vs Express odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.0%, draw 25.4%, away 13.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 3.48 | 6.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 3.90 | 9.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 3.40 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.35 | 3.90 | 9.00 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 3.75 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 3.75 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 3.48 | 6.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 3.43 | 5.52 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.30 | 5.80 |