Uganda Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Ntugasaze
vs
Mbarara City
1 – 0 Full time
| 29′ | J. Opar | ||
| 72′ | A. Arinda |
Ntugasaze
31%
Draw
32%
Mbarara City
37%
Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City
| Probability | Ntugasaze | Draw | Mbarara City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.5% | 32.0% | 36.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.5% | 32.0% | 36.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mbarara City
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
65%
3+ goals
37%
No goals
13%
Ntugasaze and Mbarara City expected goals
Ntugasaze
1.03
Mbarara City
1.14
Total expected goals: 2.17
Ntugasaze and Mbarara City attack and defence ratings
Ntugasaze
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
1.77 +77%
Mbarara City
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City: result vs prediction
Ntugasaze 1 – 0 Mbarara City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbarara City | 36.5% | 2.74 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ntugasaze | 31.5% |
| Draw | 32.0% | |
| Mbarara City | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.1% |
| No | 54.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mbarara City win | 15.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 63.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 12.8% | |
| 0-1 | 11.6% |
Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City stats
Ntugasaze and Mbarara City recent form
| Ntugasaze |
LLLL |
| Mbarara City |
DDLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.